Elon Musk not too long ago revived the “51 % renewables” benchmark, stating that the vitality backing Bitcoin “can’t be faked.”

The reference is to his earlier promise that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin funds as soon as not less than half of mining vitality got here from clear or low-carbon sources.

Nevertheless, now that the newest knowledge suggests the community might have crossed that threshold, Tesla nonetheless hasn’t re-enabled BTC checkout. Why?

Has Bitcoin handed the bar but?

In response to the Cambridge Centre for Different Finance’s 2025 Digital Mining Business Report, sustainable vitality now powers roughly 52.4 % of surveyed Bitcoin mining exercise.

Of that, 42.6 % is from renewables (hydro, wind, photo voltaic, and many others.) and 9.8 % from nuclear or different low-carbon sources. In parallel, fossil gas contributions have shifted: pure gasoline now accounts for 38.2 % (up from ~25 % in 2022), and coal has fallen to eight.9 % (down from ~36.6 %).

If Musk’s promise is taken actually, Bitcoin might already exceed the 51 % “sustainable vitality” bar, not less than as measured by Cambridge’s survey of companies that cowl roughly 48 % of worldwide mining capability.

However that is solely half the story. The wording issues: Musk has referenced renewables (50 %) in earlier feedback, although in later tweets he says “51 % renewable” or “vitality you’ll be able to’t faux.” The Cambridge determine lumps renewables + nuclear; the pure renewables share is decrease (42.6 %).

So, BTC should still fall quick relying on the rigidity of Musk’s definition.

Furthermore, the Cambridge method is survey-based and covers solely a subset of miners. Off-grid operations, curtailed renewables, regional idiosyncrasies, and temporal mismatches (when renewables produce kind of relative to mining demand) complicate the image.

Alternate fashions, similar to these based mostly on grid carbon depth or vitality tracing, usually yield extra conservative estimates of renewable share. That divergence means even a nominal “go” is topic to debate.

So why hasn’t Tesla flipped the change?

Even granting that Bitcoin might now qualify underneath Musk’s sustainability take a look at, Tesla has not re-enabled BTC funds. A number of pragmatic and symbolic hurdles stay.

The primary is due diligence. Musk beforehand acknowledged that Tesla would solely restart funds as soon as he noticed “affordable (~50 %) clear vitality utilization … and a development towards rising that quantity.” That wording implies he’s searching for persistence, not a one-off knowledge level.

A single report displaying 52 % sustainable vitality might not fulfill his requirement for a verified and sustained upward development in Bitcoin’s vitality combine.

One other issue is definition readability. Tesla would wish to resolve whether or not “sustainable” consists of nuclear and low-carbon sources or strictly renewables like hydro, wind, and photo voltaic. The Cambridge knowledge combines these classes, however Musk’s earlier phrasing referenced renewables particularly.

With no universally accepted definition, any choice to renew BTC funds dangers being accused of greenwashing.

There’s additionally the problem of service provider and market danger. Accepting Bitcoin exposes Tesla to cost volatility, advanced accounting therapy, and potential regulatory issues.

Even when the corporate instantly converts BTC receipts to fiat, fluctuations between order placement and settlement introduce monetary uncertainty that is probably not well worth the effort for a automobile producer working on skinny margins.

Model optics add one other layer. Tesla’s picture is constructed on environmental credibility, and even a minor backslide in Bitcoin’s vitality profile may set off backlash from traders and ESG-minded prospects. The corporate might want to err on the facet of warning reasonably than face renewed criticism if mining exercise shifts again towards fossil-heavy areas.

Lastly, operational integration can’t be ignored. To carry Bitcoin funds again on-line, Tesla would wish to rebuild pockets infrastructure, transaction pipelines, and conversion mechanisms. That requires engineering sources and inner approvals: steps which might be removed from trivial for a world producer already balancing a number of product launches and software program initiatives.

Taken collectively, these components recommend that clearing the 51 % renewable threshold is just not sufficient by itself. For Musk, the take a look at appears to be as a lot about confidence, consistency, and notion as about uncooked knowledge. Till these align, Tesla’s checkout web page is prone to keep crypto-free.

What this implies for adoption

From a story standpoint, Musk’s reengagement wields affect. If Bitcoin can credibly cleave to a cleaner vitality combine and main business counterparts like Tesla start transacting once more, it could reinforce a extra sustainable narrative for crypto.

But Tesla’s continued off-chain standing regardless of claims suggests Musk views the promise as conditional, not computerized. The take a look at is as a lot about optics, danger management, and narrative as it’s about easy metrics.

For now, Bitcoin’s claimed “51 %+ sustainable” standing presents a compelling rebuttal to critics, however till checkouts return, it stays extra of a symbolic win than a business one.