Key takeaways:
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Fed interest-rate reduce odds for in the present day are actually 100%.
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BTC value might rise to all-time highs if key resistance stage at $118,000 is damaged.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose to a four-week excessive above $117,000 on Wednesday, as merchants anticipate volatility value swings earlier than and after the Federal coverage choice on rate of interest cuts.
100% probability of rate of interest cuts
There’s a 96% probability of a 25 bps reduce on the Sept. 17 FOMC assembly, with a 4% likelihood of the charges being decreased by 50 bps, in response to CME’s FedWatch software.
Polymarket betters have additionally locked in a 25 bps lower at 93% for in the present day’s FOMC assembly, with odds for a 50 bps discount at 5%.
Associated: Bitcoin caught at $116K resistance till ‘decisively reclaimed,’ says Bitfinex
Odds from each the CME FedWatch and Polymarket are constructing for a three-cut path towards the top of the 12 months.
Nonetheless, some market commentators say that any risky value motion from rate of interest cuts is already priced in.
Merchants have now turned their focus to the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the FOMC assembly. Powell, who has been below strain from US President Donald Trump to decrease rates of interest, beforehand hinted at curiosity cuts, saying the prevailing inflation and the labor market state of affairs warranted changes.
Due to this fact, the market will keenly watch Powell’s language on the FOMC information convention to see if there’s any shift in tone.
“Markets are locked on the FOMC Wednesday, with a 25 bps reduce priced in,” stated personal wealth supervisor Swissblock in a Tuesday publish on X, including that merchants will probably be specializing in “Powell’s stance below the highlight for hints.”
Swissblock managers additionally identified that both manner, volatility is assured, including:
“Bitcoin’s Threat Index will information whether or not BTC’s bullish construction holds or if a sell-off looms on the horizon.”
In the meantime, Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC stated that BTC value might first rise to $118,000 on Wednesday earlier than retracing after the FOMC choice is confirmed.
The place to subsequent for BTC value?
Bitcoin should flip resistance at $118,000 into assist to proceed its uptrend towards all-time highs and finally into value discovery.
“Bitcoin retains slowly grinding increased, now pushing into the 116.5K-118K resistance space,” stated crypto analyst Jelle in an X publish on Wednesday, including:
“Break 118K and maintain above it, and new all-time highs are subsequent.”
Information from Cointelegraph Markets Professional and TradingView exhibits BTC value “attacking” the resistance between $117,500 and $118,500, which is a good signal, in response to MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe.
“Fairly often it is only a run earlier than a drop.”
#Bitcoin attacking the vary resistance pre-FOMC might be an incredible signal.
Fairly often it is only a run earlier than a drop.
We’ll see.
It’ll be enjoyable! pic.twitter.com/27GySz5j7g
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 17, 2025
Van de Poppe’s evaluation prompt that if resistance round $118,000 is taken out, it might set off a run-up transfer towards the $120,000 and later to the all-time highs at $124,500.
On the draw back, a key space of curiosity lies between $116,800 and $114,500, a spread the value has held between Sept. 10 and Sept. 16.
Beneath that, the subsequent transfer could be a retest of the $112,000 psychological stage, which can also be the 100-day easy transferring common.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
