Coinbase’s (COIN) expectations-busting third-quarter earnings report drew a spread of responses from Wall Avenue analysts, highlighting sharp variations in expectations for the crypto change’s long-term development and talent to handle prices.
The corporate posted $1.05 billion in transaction income and $801 million in adjusted Ebitda, each forward of consensus estimates. Analysts throughout the board agreed that derivatives buying and selling, subscription providers and the combination of Deribit helped drive the beat. From there, opinions diverged.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish acknowledged Coinbase’s efficiency, however flagged rising prices and shrinking margins heading into the fourth quarter. He cited a step-up in working bills, pushed by hiring and acquisitions like fundraising platform Echo, as key challenges. Budish lowered his worth goal to $357 from $361, citing decrease earnings estimates for 2026.
Clear Avenue’s Owen Lau was extra upbeat. He raised his goal to $415 from $405, arguing that Coinbase is well-positioned to profit from a rising function in cross-border B2B funds. Lau pointed to Coinbase’s partnerships with Citi and Shopify, and mentioned stablecoin-based service provider funds may take market share from conventional pathways. He additionally flagged regulatory progress, such because the attainable passage of the Readability Act within the U.S. subsequent 12 months, as a possible “Altcoin Summer time” catalyst.
Benchmark’s Mark Palmer echoed the optimism, conserving a purchase score and $421 goal. He framed the earnings as a return to kind, with Coinbase demonstrating working leverage as crypto markets warmed. He emphasised the significance of subscription income, which grew 14% quarter-over-quarter, and the corporate’s function within the broader institutional adoption of digital property.
Citi additionally struck an upbeat tone, highlighting momentum throughout the change’s increasing enterprise strains.
Analysts led by Peter Christiansen mentioned they had been inspired by the corporate’s progress in signing new “onchain-as-a-service” partnerships, together with with Samsung and several other banks. The report added that the corporate’s “All the things Alternate” imaginative and prescient is beginning to take form, with choices buying and selling now dwell and futures volumes set to rise.
Pending digital asset reforms may enhance market entry, and the financial institution famous they may additionally unleash “a pent-up innovation wave”. The analysts reaffirmed their purchase score on the inventory and their $505 worth goal.
Compass Level’s Ed Engel, nevertheless, warned that price development outpacing income places Coinbase in a weak place ought to crypto markets cool. He slashed his 2026 Ebitda estimate and lowered his goal to $266 from $277. Engel was skeptical that development in stablecoin and staking revenues would proceed, particularly if rates of interest fall and retail crypto enthusiasm wanes.
Dealer Bernstein famous that the outcomes had been beneath their street-high expectations, however mentioned the corporate is on the “path of a generational enterprise buildout and its destiny isn’t just merely pushed by crypto worth motion.”
The rollout of the Base app to hundreds of thousands of customers, alongside the launch of a Base token, may mark a “Crypto Venmo” second for Coinbase, the report mentioned, signaling a significant step towards mainstream adoption. The dealer reiterated its outperform score on the shares and $510 worth goal.
The largest level of settlement was Coinbase’s increasing presence in derivatives and stablecoin-related merchandise. However even that got here with caveats as analysts famous declining fee charges and rising competitors from Circle Web (CRCL), which is making an attempt to drag extra quantity of its USDC stablecoin onto its personal platform.
Finally, Coinbase’s near-term success is obvious. However as crypto markets stay risky and the corporate spends closely on development, the long-term outlook hinges on whether or not new income streams like B2B funds and tokenized property can scale quick sufficient to justify the funding.
Worth targets now vary from $266 to $510, a spot that displays each the chance Coinbase is chasing and the dangers if it stumbles.
