The US economic system grew at a 3.8% annualized charge in Q2 2025, in accordance with the third GDP estimate launched Thursday. This marked a big upward revision from the earlier 3.3% estimate and the quickest progress tempo since Q3 2023.

The stronger studying was pushed primarily by an upward revision to shopper spending, which accelerated to 2.5% from the beforehand reported 1.6%.

Key Takeaways from Q2 2025 GDP Report

• GDP Progress: Q2 actual GDP finalized at 3.8% (vs 3.3% earlier estimate, 3.0% advance estimate)
• Client Spending: Revised as much as 2.5% progress (from 1.6% earlier)
• Commerce Influence: Imports subtracted lower than beforehand estimated, with web commerce including 4.83 share factors to progress
• Company Earnings: Elevated $6.8 billion in Q2, although revised down $58.7 billion from earlier estimate
• Inflation: PCE worth index 2.1%, core PCE 2.6% (each revised up 0.1pp)

Hyperlink to the BEA Closing Q2 2025 GDP Estimate

In a separate report, U.S. sturdy items orders rebounded sharply in August, rising 2.9% after two consecutive month-to-month declines.

The rise was pushed by a surge in plane orders, with protection plane orders leaping 50.1% and non-defense plane orders rising 21.6%.

Extra importantly for Fed watchers, core capital items orders (non-defense excluding plane) rose 0.6%, sustaining momentum from July’s 0.8% achieve, although shipments slipped 0.3%.

Hyperlink to the Census Bureau’s sturdy items report

In the meantime, the weekly preliminary jobless claims fell 14,000 to 218,000 for the week ending September 20, nicely under the 235,000 consensus estimate.

Persevering with claims edged down 2,000 to 1.926 million.

Hyperlink to Division of Labor’s jobless claims knowledge

Market Reactions

U.S. greenback vs. Main Currencies: 5-min

Overlay of USD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TradingView

The greenback surged instantly on the knowledge releases, with USD/JPY and USD/CHF main the cost increased as merchants reacted to the stronger-than-expected GDP revision and the sharp drop in jobless claims. The preliminary spike noticed the greenback achieve throughout the board towards all main currencies.

After the primary hour, USD pulled again modestly from its preliminary highs, doubtless as some merchants took income. Nevertheless, this proved to be only a temporary pause. Bullish momentum resumed and intensified by the session, holding the greenback close to its intraday highs.

The sustained demand doubtless mirrored the mixture of things:

• The numerous upward GDP revision to three.8% shocked even the optimists
• The drop in jobless claims to 218,000 recommended the labor market remained resilient regardless of current Fed considerations
• The rebound in sturdy items orders, notably the stable achieve in core capital items, added to the narrative that the US economic system maintained appreciable momentum.

The greenback closed within the inexperienced towards all main currencies, with notably sturdy positive factors towards the commodity currencies. The day’s worth motion recommended merchants had been reassessing whether or not the Fed’s September charge reduce was untimely, given the economic system’s obvious power, probably limiting the scope for aggressive easing forward.