With TKO Group Holdings TKO top off over 30% year-to-date, helped by a new media rights deal with Paramount Skydance PSKY, an analyst is transferring to the sidelines with a score downgrade.
The TKO Analyst: Seaport Analysis analyst David Joyce downgraded TKO inventory from Purchase to Impartial with no value goal.
See how TKO inventory is doing right here.
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The Analyst Takeaways: Joyce mentioned he was “stepping out of the ring” with TKO inventory in a brand new investor be aware.
The downgrade comes after TKO inventory surpassed the bottom case valuation of $188 and neared the $209 upside case valuation beforehand laid out.
“With the important thing TKO change agent having been introduced — the larger-than-expected home UFC rights take care of Paramount Skydance — we predict a lot of the corporate’s progress has been priced in,” Joyce mentioned.
Whereas the analyst downgrades the inventory, the brand new report mentions areas like Zuffa Boxing, sponsorships, WWE offers and OnLocation occasions that might present extra development. Joyce mentioned the downgrade might show to be conservative if the boxing section reveals “higher economics sooner slightly than later.”
“We stay constructive on the expansion alternative set for TKO, however would loosen up publicity with some softening labor knowledge (maybe extra related to WWE than UFC, primarily based on ticketing value factors).”
Joyce mentioned it might be “prudent” to take income on shares within the stay occasion and experiences house like TKO Group inventory.
“If the current softening in labor knowledge is a possible indicator for the ahead well being of the buyer, pertaining in TKO’s case to occasion attendance, pricing, and ancillary spending, then additional monitoring and warning ought to be heightened.”
The analyst mentioned 2026 estimates embrace the brand new media rights take care of Paramount Skydance and the comparability of the variety of occasions from yr to yr.
What’s Subsequent: Not included within the investor be aware from Joyce is the upcoming UFC struggle on the White Home on July 4.
This struggle, which was not too long ago confirmed as occurring by UFC CEO Dana White, may very well be a serious catalyst for UFC and for TKO Group inventory.
Reviews point out sturdy curiosity from prime fighters for the UFC occasion that might embrace title fights, fighters taking part of their final fights earlier than retirement and fighters coming again to UFC out of retirement or after years away from the group.
Whereas the struggle will not have large attendance because of the logistics of being on the White Home as the primary main sporting occasion happening at this Washington D.C. location, it might make up for that in different areas.
A UFC struggle on the White Home might command premium viewership on CBS, the place White indicated the struggle would air, and likewise see sturdy promoting demand.
Whereas the UFC struggle on the White Home has not been formally confirmed by the group and stays 10 months away, it’s a catalyst that’s probably underestimated by analysts at the moment.
TKO Worth Motion: TKO inventory is down 2.41% on Tuesday to $195.64 versus a 52-week buying and selling vary of $113.16 to $200.71. TKO inventory is up 37.3% year-to-date in 2025.
Picture: A. Ricardo through Shutterstock
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