CryptoQuant chief government Ki Younger Ju has revived a cycle-top debate with a recent model-based name that places Bitcoin’s higher certain at roughly $208,000 per coin. Sharing CryptoQuant’s “Value Prediction Primarily based on Realized Cap” dashboard on X, Ki wrote: “No person cares about my calls anymore, however simply saying I’m bullish on Bitcoin. An excessive amount of capital inflows onchain. Method an excessive amount of.”
The submit reprises his data-driven commentary from early 2024, when he argued that “#Bitcoin might attain $112K this 12 months pushed by ETF inflows, worst-case $55K.” That framework got here conspicuously shut: Bitcoin went on to register a 2024 excessive above $108,000, narrowly beneath his $112,000 projection.
Why Bitcoin Value Might Prime Above $208,000
The chart Ki printed on September 18 visualizes three time collection derived from CryptoQuant’s realized-cap methodology: the spot worth of BTC (black), a mannequin “ceiling_price” (pink) and a mannequin “floor_price” (inexperienced).
As of 17 September 2025 (UTC), the panel annotated a spot marker at $116,453, a ceiling at $208,310 and a flooring at $41,662, with the dashboard displaying it was “final run” two hours prior. In different phrases, the mannequin at present locates Bitcoin properly above its inferred flooring and nonetheless materially under the band it treats as an overvaluation zone.
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The implication of Ki’s share is just not a assure, however a press release that, given prevailing on-chain capital inflows and the realized-cap construction, the market has room—by this metric—to increase towards that $208,000 higher band.
Realized cap values the community by summing every coin on the worth it final moved on-chain relatively than the present market worth, a building that tends to trace investor price foundation over time. CryptoQuant’s dashboard initiatives dynamic “flooring” and “ceiling” bands round spots that, traditionally, have framed multi-year expansions and contractions.
Ki’s renewed bullishness ties these bands to what he describes as surging demand stress seen in settlement flows and ETF-linked capital migration onto the community. The continuity along with his February 2024 observe is specific: then he cited exchange-traded product inflows because the dominant driver of an advance towards six figures; now he factors to “an excessive amount of capital inflows onchain” whereas circulating a mannequin that locations the ceiling close to $208,000.
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It’s noteworthy that Ki is just not presenting an open-ended forecast however relatively a mannequin snapshot that updates with market construction. The identical dashboard that prints a $208,310 ceiling at the moment additionally marks the chance flooring at $41,662, underscoring the unfold of outcomes the realized-cap method contemplates. His monitor document with the $112,000 “this 12 months” steering—adopted by a print simply above $108,000—will inevitably colour how merchants obtain the brand new submit.
However the framing stays analytical: an information readout of the place Bitcoin sits relative to its realized-value envelope after a 12 months and a half outlined by US spot ETF adoption and deepening institutional participation. For now, Ki’s message is straightforward and blunt—“I’m bullish on Bitcoin”—and anchored in the identical on-chain lens he used 10 months forward of the 2024 peak.
Whether or not the market finally approaches the mannequin’s $208,000 ceiling will rely upon how these on-chain inflows evolve towards macro liquidity, ETF and company treasury demand in addition to miners’ provide habits. What his chart makes clear is that, by CryptoQuant’s realized-cap bands, Bitcoin has not but examined the highest of its statistical vary on this cycle.
At press time, BTC traded at $116,173.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
