After two years of ready for an “altcoin season” that by no means got here, retail crypto merchants have missed out on roughly $800 billion in potential positive factors by betting in opposition to Bitcoin’s dominance.
A brand new report from 10x Analysis reveals that altcoins have lagged Bitcoin by that quantity this cycle, marking one of many largest relative underperformances since 2017.
The information highlights a profound shift in market construction, which is now more and more outlined by institutional flows, Bitcoin ETFs, and danger aversion relatively than the speculative rotation patterns that fueled prior bull runs.
Retail waits for a ‘ghost season’
Historically, an altcoin season describes a interval when smaller cryptocurrencies dramatically outperform Bitcoin, absorbing capital from the benchmark asset and delivering short-term outsized returns.
In previous cycles, most notably 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin income cascaded into Ethereum, then into mid-caps and meme tokens.
Nevertheless, 10x Analysis famous that this cycle has inverted that sample. As an alternative of rotation, liquidity has consolidated round Bitcoin.
In keeping with the agency, information reveals traders have re-allocated closely towards BTC-denominated merchandise and away from higher-risk tokens.
It famous:
“Over the previous 30 days, our tactical altcoin mannequin has favored Bitcoin over altcoins, reflecting a bottoming out in Bitcoin dominance. This shift follows a 75-day interval during which the mannequin most well-liked altcoins, a part that coincided with Ethereum’s rally, however that development has clearly ended.”
Furthermore, 10X Analysis said that Korean retail merchants, lengthy thought-about the engine of altcoin hypothesis, have additionally deserted the commerce.
For context, Messari information reveals that Upbit, the biggest crypto change in South Korea, has seen its buying and selling quantity decline considerably this 12 months as merchants pivot to US-listed crypto equities resembling Coinbase and MicroStrategy.
That migration, 10x Analysis argues, drained each liquidity and conviction from the altcoin complicated.
Notably, CryptoSlate earlier reviews assist this assertion, declaring how altcoins have stalled compared to Bitcoin.
In keeping with the report, Bitcoin’s market cap surpassed $2.3 trillion in early October, setting a brand new all-time excessive of round $126,000. In the meantime, the whole altcoin market cap (excluding stablecoins) has remained beneath its November 2021 peak of $1.6 trillion.
By mid-October, TOTAL2ES had solely reached $1.48 trillion, about $120 billion wanting its former excessive, at the same time as Bitcoin exceeded its personal by 84%. That hole is the place 10x Analysis’s “$800 billion missed achieve” determine originates.
10x Analysis wrote:
“Liquidity, momentum, and conviction have all migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet.”
Given this, Coinperp’s Altcoin Season Index, which tracks how lots of the prime 100 tokens outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, was solely in a position to peak above 70 in early September—beneath the 75 threshold that defines a real alt season, and has since slid again to 13 as of press time.
Altcoins fade
In keeping with Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, the issue runs deeper than non permanent sentiment.
She identified that enterprise capital funding in early-stage Web3 initiatives has fallen sharply, depriving the sector of recent narratives and token launches.
Certainly, a Galaxy Analysis report revealed that crypto VC exercise is considerably depressed in comparison with prior bull markets. In reality, the second quarter of 2025 was the second smallest since This fall 2020 for enterprise funding in crypto and blockchain startups.
Chen added that the current Oct. 11 market shock, which wiped round $20 billion from leveraged crypto place holders, “dealt a devastating blow to altcoins.”
She added:
“Retail traders buying and selling altcoins face a horrible risk-reward ratio.”
Contemplating this, the Bitget CEO mentioned a broad-based altcoin season “is not going to are available 2025 or 26.”
In the meantime, she famous that some doable exceptions would possibly exist for initiatives issuing infrastructure tokens tied to real-world property (RWA), stablecoins, and fee protocols.
Chen argues that these “infrastructure performs,” whereas unlikely to problem risky native tokens, might anchor the subsequent progress part. Certainly, Ripple’s cross-border rails, Circle’s USDC ecosystem, and tokenized-treasury platforms already exhibit that traction is shifting from hypothesis to service.
But, retail curiosity persists. Google Traits information present that world search curiosity for “altcoin” reached its highest degree in 5 years this August, matching pleasure ranges final seen throughout Ethereum’s 2018 run-up.
How establishments rewrite the playbook
Not like 2021’s retail-led mania, the present cycle has been formed by institutional capital.
In keeping with 10x Analysis, spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, company treasury participation, and yield-bearing stablecoins have redefined what counts as “protected” crypto publicity.
Notably, spot crypto ETFs have pulled report inflows of greater than $40 billion in recent capital this 12 months, considerably outperforming different markets.
Because of this, retail merchants chasing quick returns on altcoins have discovered themselves sidelined. So, even modest rallies in property like Solana or Avalanche have shortly fizzled amid skinny order books and restricted elementary catalysts.
