The Reserve Financial institution of Australia (RBA) stored rates of interest on maintain at 3.60% as anticipated, however cautious commentary from Governor Bullock restricted the Aussie’s beneficial properties.

Though policymakers voted unanimously to take a seat on their arms for now, their official assertion struck a somber tone, noting that “current knowledge, whereas partial and unstable, recommend that inflation within the September quarter could also be greater than anticipated.”

Let’s study which setups from our watchlist capitalized on this blended RBA end result and the way they carried out in opposition to a backdrop of U.S. authorities shutdown issues and NFP positioning.

Watchlists are worth outlook & technique discussions supported by each elementary & technical evaluation, a vital step in direction of making a top quality discretionary commerce thought earlier than engaged on a danger & commerce administration plan.

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The Setup

What We Have been Watching: RBA Financial Coverage Determination for September 2025

• The Expectation: Markets anticipated the central financial institution would keep charges at 3.60%
• Information end result: RBA held as anticipated however struck a cautious tone, warning September quarter inflation “could also be greater than anticipated” whereas noting the decline in underlying inflation had slowed.
• Market setting surrounding the occasion: Impartial to optimistic danger sentiment early week as U.S. authorities shutdown anxieties had been offset by Fed fee minimize optimism and gold’s march to document highs

Occasion Final result

The RBA stored the money fee unchanged at 3.60% in September, in a broadly anticipated determination that mirrored the central financial institution’s cautious method amid blended financial indicators.

The central financial institution warned that “indications that inflation could also be persistent in some areas” justified holding regular, whereas Governor Bullock emphasised the necessity to see the total results of this yr’s 75 foundation factors of easing earlier than shifting once more.

Throughout the press convention, Bullock additionally careworn that “we’re in a really tough place with the property market,” however emphasised the RBA should give attention to its inflation mandate. She refused to offer ahead steerage, stating, “I’m not going to foretell what the rate of interest goes to be within the subsequent three to 6 months.”

Key Takeaways:

• RBA held at 3.60% following three cuts in 2025 (February, Could, August)
• The determination was unanimous amongst board members
• August month-to-month CPI jumped to three.0% y/y from 2.8%, the very best since July 2024
• Q3 inflation “could also be greater than anticipated”

Elementary Bias Triggered: Bullish AUD setups

Broad Market and Exogenous Drivers:

Monday–Tuesday: Shutdown Anxiousness Meets Threat Resilience

The week kicked off with mounting U.S. authorities shutdown worries as leaders scrambled for a last-minute deal. Regardless of the uncertainty, danger urge for food held regular. The S&P 500 managed small beneficial properties as merchants seemed forward to Fed fee cuts. Gold stole the highlight, breaking recent data close to $3,825 on fiscal jitters and blended Fed messaging. Bitcoin climbed previous $114,000, cementing its rising position as a hedge in opposition to coverage chaos. The greenback weakened broadly as shutdown fears mounted, whereas the yen outperformed after BOJ’s Noguchi hinted coverage was coming into a extra delicate section.

Midweek: Shutdown Begins, ADP Shocks Markets

The shutdown formally started on Wednesday, however danger property stayed calm. The ADP report shocked markets, exhibiting personal payrolls fell 32,000 in September. With the BLS confirming no knowledge releases throughout the shutdown, merchants priced in deeper Fed cuts. Gold blasted by $3,900 and Bitcoin topped $118,000 as haven demand surged.

Thursday–Friday: Geopolitical Tensions and Positioning Flows

Markets wobbled as Russia warned of retaliation over missile deployments. Speaker Johnson’s refusal to barter deepened shutdown issues. Gold eased to $3,865 on profit-taking, oil slipped to $60.60, and commodity currencies softened as merchants squared up for the weekend.

AUD/NZD: Impartial-to-bullish Occasion Final result + Threat-Off Situation

= Arguably good odds of a internet optimistic end result

AUD/NZD 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

AUD/NZD began the week already trending greater, consolidating close to 1.1350 with indicators of an upside breakout. The RBA’s maintain determination gave it a lift, sending the pair from round 1.1380 to 1.1415 as merchants scaled again near-term easing expectations. However quickly after, the RBA’s warning that September inflation “could also be greater than anticipated” helped trim odds of a November fee minimize.

Momentum light throughout Governor Bullock’s press convention when she struck a “cautious, gradual” tone and averted ahead steerage, leaving the door open for future easing. That dented yield enchantment and pulled AUD/NZD off its highs.

The pair hovered close to 1.1400 on Tuesday earlier than sellers stepped, arguably after rumors that China may halt iron ore imports, although that report was later debunked. By Thursday, weak Australian commerce knowledge and slower family spending possible helped pushed AUD/NZD again towards 1.1350, however Kiwi’s dovish outlook forward of the RBNZ’s occasion the next week restricted losses.

By Friday, the pair lingered slightly below 1.1350. Merchants who caught the breakout may have caught round 60–80 pips to the 1.1400 psychological degree and R2 Pivot Level space, because of the RBA’s hawkish tone and the Kiwi’s mushy fundamentals, however energetic commerce administration would have been key to stopping turning that win into a possible loss.

Not Eligible to maneuver past Watchlist – Bearish AUD Setups and Bullish AUD/JPY Setup

AUD/JPY: Impartial-to-bullish Occasion Final result + Threat-On Surroundings

AUD/JPY 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

AUD/JPY had been caught in a variety forward of the RBA determination. The RBA maintain triggered an preliminary spike towards 98.00, however the transfer proved short-lived as Governor Bullock’s cautious press convention commentary emphasised gradualism.

All through the week, competing narratives created unstable swings – Wednesday’s shutdown and weak ADP knowledge weighed on danger urge for food, whereas Thursday’s Russia-Ukraine tensions sparked safe-haven flows earlier than reversing on tech rally optimism. The essential transfer got here Friday when JPY fell sharply after BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech averted signaling any subsequent fee transfer, disappointing merchants anticipating hawkish hints.

The setup was invalidated because the RBA’s cautious tone failed to offer the hawkish catalyst wanted for sustained AUD energy, whereas the advanced danger setting restricted directional conviction.

AUD/CAD: Bearish AUD Occasion Final result + Threat-On Surroundings

AUD/CAD 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

This pair had fashioned a symmetrical triangle by September, bouncing off assist forward of the RBA to climb above the Pivot Level (0.9130). The RBA maintain initially lifted AUD/CAD however the momentum finally light as each commodity currencies confronted comparable pressures.

The bearish AUD situation was invalidated by the goal occasion end result, because the RBA’s hawkish maintain offered extra assist than anticipated. Moreover, CAD confronted challenges past oil weak spot – Canada’s Providers PMI on Friday printed 46.3, badly lacking 49.0 and highlighting service sector struggles alongside stagnant GDP knowledge.

The pair maintained a ranging sample by the latter half of the week, with neither forex establishing clear dominance, stopping the bearish AUD situation from creating as anticipated.

AUD/JPY: Bearish AUD Occasion Final result + Threat-Off Situation

AUD/JPY 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

Our various bearish situation – anticipating a dovish RBA shock – was invalidated by the precise hawkish maintain end result.

The pair had fashioned a descending triangle with assist round 97.40 close to S1 (97.34), however the RBA’s warnings about upside inflation dangers meant this setup by no means certified to maneuver past the watchlist stage.

The Verdict

The RBA’s September determination delivered a nuanced end result that defied easy categorization as purely hawkish or dovish. Whereas the unanimous maintain and warnings about upside inflation dangers initially supported the Australian greenback, Governor Bullock’s subsequent emphasis on remaining “cautious” and “data-dependent” with out offering ahead steerage tempered the hawkish interpretation.

AUD/NZD proved essentially the most dependable setup for the week, benefiting from the convergence of the RBA’s cautious maintain (which was comparatively hawkish in comparison with pre-positioned sentiment), NZD’s vulnerability to aggressive RBNZ easing expectations (markets debating 25-50 bps cuts on the upcoming assembly), and favorable technical positioning. The pair’s advance from the 1.1320-1.1340 space towards 1.1400 and simply shy of R2 (1.1420) supplied clear profit-taking alternatives for individuals who managed danger appropriately.

Total, we fee the AUD/NZD setup as “neutral-to-not-likely” supportive of a internet optimistic end result, because the pair delivered on the anticipated bullish bias with clear technical ranges for each entry and profit-taking. The setup briefly benefited from parallel financial coverage divergence (cautious RBA maintain versus dovish RBNZ expectations), favorable technical positioning above the 1.1300 assist, and got here inside putting distance of the recognized R2 revenue goal.

Merchants who employed acceptable danger administration – both taking earnings at R1 or adjusting stops when worth examined R2 resistance – possible captured substantial beneficial properties from this setup. For many who determined to carry longer with energetic commerce administration to scale back danger and/or lock in earnings, possible noticed a adverse end result given the sluggish pullback within the latter half of the week.

Key Takeaways:

Central Financial institution Language Can Help Forex Regardless of Lack of Clear Ahead Steering

The RBA’s determination demonstrated that even when a central financial institution refuses to offer express ahead steerage, the relative tone in comparison with market positioning issues enormously. Markets had been pricing in growing odds of November easing forward of the choice, so the RBA’s warnings about upside inflation dangers and emphasis on ready for full Q3 CPI knowledge earlier than shifting once more successfully diminished near-term minimize expectations.

This created area for AUD energy regardless of Governor Bullock’s refusal to decide to a coverage path. The important thing was recognizing that “cautious” and “data-dependent” rhetoric on this context meant the bar for October/November easing had been raised, not that cuts had been imminent.

Software: When analyzing central financial institution communications, at all times evaluate the precise tone and language to what markets had been pricing in beforehand, slightly than judging the assertion in isolation. A “impartial” assertion may be comparatively hawkish if markets had been positioned for dovish indicators.

Parallel Elementary Vulnerabilities in Counter-Currencies Improve Setup Conviction

AUD/NZD labored notably nicely as a result of each currencies had clear elementary drivers pointing in reverse instructions. Whereas Australia’s RBA was signaling warning about chopping additional, New Zealand confronted persistent expectations for aggressive RBNZ easing (25-50 bps debate) on the upcoming assembly. This parallel divergence created stronger conviction than setups the place just one forex had a transparent elementary catalyst.

In contrast, AUD/JPY struggled as a result of each currencies confronted conflicting indicators – Australia’s cautious maintain versus its weak commerce knowledge, Japan’s labor market softening versus safe-haven flows. When each currencies in a pair have blended elementary footage, technical ranges, and danger sentiment typically dominate, creating choppier, much less dependable directional strikes.

Software: Prioritize setups the place the goal forex’s elementary catalyst is matched by clear opposing drivers within the counter-currency. Scan the financial calendar for either side of the pair to establish the place financial coverage divergence, progress differentials, or commodity correlations are most pronounced.

Recent Counter-Forex Developments Can Override Goal Occasion Outcomes

Friday’s dramatic JPY selloff after BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech served as a essential reminder that even well-positioned setups primarily based on one forex’s occasion may be fully overridden by sudden developments within the counter-currency. Merchants positioned for AUD/JPY draw back primarily based on Japan’s labor market knowledge and hawkish BOJ expectations noticed their thesis invalidated when Ueda did not sign additional tightening.

This underscores the significance of remaining versatile and monitoring each currencies constantly, even after the goal occasion has handed. The buying and selling week doesn’t finish when your anticipated occasion concludes – recent catalysts can emerge at any time that reshape the basic panorama.

Software: After your goal occasion concludes, proceed monitoring the financial calendar and central financial institution communications for the counter-currency. Construct flexibility into your commerce administration plans to regulate or exit positions if recent developments alter the basic image. Think about using trailing stops that lock in earnings whereas permitting room for favorable strikes to proceed, defending in opposition to sudden reversals from counter-currency catalysts.