The SEC lastly cleared the highway to fast-track altcoin ETFs, however a authorities shutdown could preserve purposes for a ETF caught in limbo till 2026 – and bettors on Polymarket are undervaluing that.
After scrapping 19b-4 filings and approving “generic itemizing requirements” to fast-track altcoin ETFs, merchants are betting 90% odds that ADA’s ETF approval would arrive by year-end 2025.
However with a 36% likelihood of a month-long authorities shutdown, that 10% “No” aspect could show the smarter play as even “absurdly quick” approvals can’t occur when the lights are out.
In keeping with the SEC’s contingency plan, solely about 390 of its 4,200 workers stay on obligation, centered fully on emergencies and market monitoring slightly than new product approvals.
ETF issuers can nonetheless submit filings by the EDGAR system, the contingency plan says, however no workers can be found to assessment, touch upon, or speed up them. With all IPO critiques already halted, the identical logjam now threatens to stall the wave of altcoin ETFs that have been anticipated to maneuver ahead beneath the SEC’s new fast-track itemizing framework launched in September.
A scan of presidency shutdown-related contracts exhibits that Polymarket bettors see federal operations resuming round late October or early November, with roughly October 30 because the consensus expectation.
For the SEC, that timeline means at the very least three extra weeks with out the workers wanted to assessment filings or advance pending crypto ETFs like Cardano’s, and there are 89 different crypto ETF purposes additionally on the docket, plus the same old assortment of approvals wanted for conventional finance merchandise.
Even when the company reopens by then, it is going to have solely about eight working weeks earlier than the Christmas slowdown, with Thanksgiving additional reducing into that window.
In prolonged date contracts, Polymarket merchants now assign roughly a 31% likelihood that the shutdown stretches into November, approaching the 35-day file set in 2018–19.
A lapse of that size would go away the SEC with even much less time to clear a rising backlog that already contains halted IPO critiques, delayed enforcement circumstances, and the newly streamlined however nonetheless pending crypto ETF filings.
There’s actually an opportunity that the ADA ETF will get authorized by the top of the 12 months. It’s unattainable to say the place it’s on the listing of issues earlier than company workers, but it surely’d be truthful to say it is excessive on the listing.
On the similar time, contemplating the impasse in Washington mirrored in Polymarket odds, there’s additionally an opportunity that this drags on.
In order that 11% likelihood the ADA ETF isn’t authorized in 2025? It might not be 100%, however the odds of a delay are clearly increased than the market suggests.
