Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin is about to finish October within the pink, breaking a six-year “Uptober” streak.
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Merchants are divided, with some fearing a big correction forward, whereas others nonetheless anticipate new highs in This fall.
Bitcoin (BTC) is about to finish October within the pink for the primary time in seven years, with merchants divided over whether or not BTC will proceed the downtrend going into November.
Bitcoin snaps “Uptober” streak
After six straight years of “Uptober” good points, Bitcoin is about to interrupt the streak this 12 months.
October is commonly referred to by that fond nickname as a result of it has delivered among the finest month-to-month returns for Bitcoin throughout the previous decade, since 2013, with solely two pink Octobers, in 2014 and 2018.
That report was bolstered by six consecutive years of good points from 2019 to 2024.
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The tables are set to show in 2025 as Bitcoin trades 3.35% decrease in October, with solely hours left till the month ends.
“Final day of the month – we want a robust inexperienced candle right this moment or we’ll see our first pink October shut in 7 years,” mentioned analyst Jelle in a submit on X.
The losses in October have been amplified by a mid-month flash crash triggered by US-China tariff threats, and the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps charge lower on Wednesday did little to elevate investor sentiment.
“October turned pink for the primary time in 7 years!” TraderAAG mentioned in an X submit, including:
“The crypto market humbled loads of merchants this month — momentum light, confidence shaken.”
Fellow analyst Crypto Damus mentioned the volatility Bitcoin skilled this month was “nothing regular,” as October is traditionally the second-best month of the 12 months for BTC.
There may be nothing “regular” about this #BTC Volatility
October is statistically the 2nd finest months of the 12 months for #BTC
That is the worst October because the 2018 Bear Market
and solely the third Pink October since 2013 pic.twitter.com/zVjvJH1was
— CRYPTO Damus (@AstroCryptoGuru) October 31, 2025
Unsure November?
Whereas some merchants mentioned a pink October is “only a setup for a good greater November rally,” others mentioned the Bitcoin bull cycle had been shaken and will be nearing the tip.
The final time BTC ended October within the pink was in 2018, and “November noticed a brutal 36.57% drop,” mentioned analyst Crypto Rover in a Friday X submit, including:
“Ought to we be fearful this time?”
“What does a weak October imply for Bitcoin?” writer and analyst Timothy Peterson requested in his newest submit on X, including that there’s mainly “no correlation between October and subsequent months.”
Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s development in This fall often slows following a weak October, Peterson added.
“The three-month return for Bitcoin after a weak October averages 11% (2016-); for sturdy Octobers, it’s 21%.”
November is traditionally Bitcoin’s finest month, averaging 46% throughout 12 years from 2013. This makes the interval between October and December the most effective quarter for BTC value rallies, with common good points of 78%, in line with knowledge from CoinGlass.
Taking a look at current years, Bitcoin rallied by about 57% in This fall 2023 and 48% in This fall 2024. The rally was extra exponential in 2017 with good points of 480% between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1.
Even in bear cycles, equivalent to 2018’s -42% and 2022’s -15%, losses have been outliers. However in any case, the final quarter of the 12 months constantly delivers important strikes.
If historical past is something to go by, Bitcoin’s value motion might reverse in November, surging towards $150,000 by the tip of 2025.
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
