LONDON (Reuters) – Dutch brewer Heineken (AS:)’s 2024 revenue may fall considerably under analyst estimates owing to geopolitical and financial volatility, it mentioned on Wednesday, sending its shares down as a lot as 6.5%.

Analysts on common anticipate the world’s second-largest brewer to realize 9.9% natural working revenue development over the approaching 12 months, helped by reducing prices from final 12 months’s excessive degree.

Heineken, nevertheless, mentioned development could possibly be anyplace between a high and low single-digit share, given the unstable world atmosphere.

It had already warned that robust financial circumstances may weigh on demand in some markets this 12 months.

“We stay cautious in regards to the world financial and geopolitical outlook,” Chief Govt Dolf van den Brink mentioned within the firm’s full-year outcomes assertion, including that Heineken goals to drive income by a steadiness of volumes and costs.

Beer brewers raised costs considerably all through 2023 to offset steep will increase in prices, hurting volumes.

Heineken’s volumes fell by 4.7% organically in 2023, with greater than 60% of that pushed by declines in Vietnam and Nigeria, two key markets for the group the place financial and political circumstances harm gross sales.

The corporate lower its 2023 forecast in July, citing turmoil in these markets. Vietnam is one among Heineken’s largest markets and has prior to now been a key revenue driver.

Some analysts mentioned its 2024 outlook may immediate cuts to consensus earnings forecasts.

However Steve Minnaar, a fund supervisor at Abax Investments, which holds Heineken inventory, mentioned it will take a “courageous CEO” to provide bullish or exact forecasts within the present atmosphere.

“There’s nothing incorrect with being a little bit extra conservative and over-delivering,” he added.

Heineken mentioned it will look to deal with restoring volumes by way of measures together with funding in its manufacturers.

Prices are nonetheless anticipated to rise, it continued, including that it’ll ship a minimum of 500 million euros ($535.85 million) in gross financial savings in 2024 – 100 million euros forward of goal.

Heineken reported a 1.7% rise in 2023 natural working revenue, beating analyst expectations.

It booked a 491 million euro impairment cost associated to its southern Africa division, fashioned after the 2021 acquisition of South African drinks group Distell and Namibian Breweries.

Heineken’s shares recovered barely to face 5.5% down by 0945 GMT.

($1 = 0.9331 euros)