There’s an terrible lot of hype surrounding AI, and much more capital behind it. AI knowledge facilities are propping up the united stateseconomy proper now, accounting for over 1% of GDP. So when somebody suggests the race is probably not being received, or worse, that the AI race could also be over, it makes folks sit up of their seats.

That’s what Adam Livingston, creator of The Bitcoin Age, claims: it’s already recreation over: China has pulled far forward, not by out-coding the U.S., however by quietly cornering the one useful resource frontier AI wants most—vitality, particularly nuclear energy.

However how a lot reality is there to this narrative, and are issues actually so black and white?

Nuclear scoreboard: reality vs. fiction

Livingston highlights a putting disparity. China is at the moment constructing 16 nuclear energy crops, whereas the US has zero. He’s not far off along with his numbers. As of late 2025, China has about 30 reactors beneath development, with repeated yearly approval for extra, making up almost half the world’s new builds.

Some analysts say China goals to succeed in 65 gigawatts of nuclear capability by the top of this yr and 200 gigawatts by 2040 (roughly a tenfold development).

In contrast, the U.S. accomplished its Vogtle 3 and 4 reactors after prolonged delays and value overruns. Presently, there aren’t any brand-new large-scale nuclear initiatives on the ground-breaking stage.

But, this isn’t the entire image. For the primary time in years, there are new plans for U.S. nuclear. Following current govt orders and coverage reforms, Westinghouse introduced intentions to assemble 10 large reactors by 2030. Work is predicted to start within the subsequent few years.

Nonetheless, regulatory hurdles, public skepticism, and the sheer complexity of nuclear buildouts imply execution is way from assured, and precise new development is just not but underway.

Vitality: the actual AI bottleneck?

Livingston poses an vital query: Are we underestimating the function of pure vitality in AI progress? Mannequin coaching and inference have develop into ravenous for electrical energy.

Coaching frontier fashions like GPT-4 requires tens of megawatts, and data-center energy demand within the U.S. is projected to greater than double over the subsequent decade (as a lot as 78 gigawatts by 2035).

International knowledge heart vitality consumption hit 415 terawatt-hours in 2024, forecast to double by 2030, with AI accounting for a rising share. So, in principle, nations that may deploy probably the most regular, carbon-free energy will certainly have a bonus within the AI race.

China’s strategy to industrial coverage is direct, top-down, and aggressive. It has allowed it to ramp up nuclear development quickly, whereas American utilities have relied extra on upgrades, license extensions, and sluggish, market-based exercise.

However whereas China is advancing quick, the U.S. can be centered on enhancing effectivity and leveraging new applied sciences comparable to Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and renewables to complement its base.

Is the AI race already over?

Has “the funeral already occurred,” as Livingston claims? The reply appears much less definitive. China’s nuclear enlargement is actual and spectacular, and its linkage to AI infrastructure is just not far-fetched. AI does critically rely on steady, reasonably priced energy.

Nonetheless, U.S. leaders and corporations will not be precisely standing nonetheless. New initiatives, coverage strikes, and elevated funding in each vitality and AI are choosing up, however thus far, they don’t seem to be matching China’s scale or velocity.

The American benefit in foundational AI analysis, chip design, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise funding stays important. Even when data-center energy turns into a constraint, innovation in effectivity, good grids, and distributed computation may slender the hole.

Notably, “vitality wars” could develop into as vital as software program or knowledge, however the end result will rely on rather more than the variety of nuclear crops alone. Livingston’s arguments spotlight an neglected side of the worldwide tech wrestle, however declare the funeral untimely. The scoreboard is altering, however the AI race isn’t over but.