Headlines & Information:

Asia-Pacific Information:

• New Zealand Inflation Fee for September 30, 2025: 1.0% q/q (0.9% forecast; 0.5% earlier); 3.0% y/y (2.9% forecast; 2.7% earlier)
• China GDP Progress Fee for September 30, 2025: 1.1% q/q (0.9% forecast; 1.1% earlier); 4.8% y/y (4.9% forecast; 5.2% earlier)
  • China Industrial Manufacturing for September 2025: 6.5% y/y (5.1% forecast; 5.2% earlier)
  • China Retail Gross sales Progress Fee for September 2025: 3.0% y/y (3.0% forecast; 3.4% earlier)
  • China Unemployment Fee for September 2025: 5.2% (5.2% forecast; 5.3% earlier)
  • China Home Value Index for September 2025: -2.2% y/y (-2.5% forecast; -2.5% earlier)
• BOJ Board Member Takata said that the time is ripe for elevating the financial institution’s coverage rate of interest
• Japan’s Liberal Democratic Occasion confirmed a coalition settlement with Japan Innovation Occasion, paving the best way for Sanae Takaichi to develop into prime minister

Europe Information:

• Germany Producer Costs Index Progress Fee for September 2025: -0.1% m/m (-0.2% forecast; -0.5% earlier); -1.7% y/y (-1.9% forecast; -2.2% earlier)
• Euro space Present Account for August 2025: 13.0B (25.1B forecast; 35.0B earlier)
• ECB Govt Board member Isabel Schnabel advocated for enhancing the euro’s worldwide position
• S&P International Scores downgraded France to A+ from AA- outdoors of the scheduled scores calendar resulting from fiscal issues

North America:

• Canada PPI Progress Fee for September 2025: 0.8% m/m (-0.3% forecast; 0.5% earlier); 5.5% y/y (4.6% forecast; 4.0% earlier)
• Canada Uncooked Supplies Costs for September 2025: 1.7% m/m (-0.4% forecast; -0.6% earlier); 8.4% y/y (5.0% forecast; 3.2% earlier)
• Financial institution of Canada’s Q3 Enterprise Outlook Survey confirmed subdued sentiment and weak funding intentions, growing expectations for a fee reduce on October 29
• White Home financial advisor Hassett said the federal government shutdown is “more likely to finish someday this week”
• President Trump confirmed soybeans are included in U.S. commerce calls for of China and reiterated plans to satisfy President Xi Jinping subsequent week

Broad Market Value Motion:

Greenback Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

For Monday’s session, we received hopeful feedback from Trump on the upcoming assembly with China to kick off the brand new week, and with third-quarter earnings season anticipated to ship constructive surprises, we noticed an uncommon combine the place threat property rebounded, however gold and USD stayed constructive, doubtless reflecting warning remained.

The S&P 500 rallied 1.1% as roughly 85% of reporting firms beat revenue expectations, with know-how megacaps advancing 1.7% and small-cap shares posting significantly robust positive aspects of 1.9% by way of the Russell 2000 index. Apple hit its first report excessive of 2025 following an analyst upgrades citing constructive iPhone demand traits.

Gold continued its outstanding run, advancing 2.3% to commerce round $4,253 per ounce as the valuable steel benefited from a number of the current supportive components, together with Fed fee reduce expectations, authorities shutdown and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The steel’s power regardless of bettering threat sentiment instructed structural demand remained strong.

WTI crude oil declined 0.12% to settle close to $56.90 per barrel.  No obvious recent catalysts, suggesting it was as soon as once more weighed down by the present narrative that OPEC+ might think about further manufacturing will increase and issues about demand weak spot in China regardless of stronger-than-expected industrial manufacturing knowledge.

Bitcoin gained 3.7% to commerce above $111,000, sustaining its momentum from the prior week’s restoration from regional financial institution issues. With no notable catalysts to level to, the cryptocurrency doubtless continued flowed with at the moment’s risk-on vibes, and presumably attracting longer-term capital to its uptrend after the current fall from $126K.

The ten-year Treasury yield declined modestly by 0.7% to settle at 4.0%, pulling again from current highs as merchants awaited Friday’s delayed September CPI knowledge. The retreat instructed some positioning adjustment forward of the inflation report, although yields remained elevated relative to current ranges.

FX Market Habits: U.S. Greenback vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

The U.S. greenback traded with blended directionality all through Monday’s session, in the end closing arguably web constructive in opposition to main currencies.

Through the Asian session, the buck traded web detrimental in opposition to most main currencies, presumably on China’s better-than-expected quarterly GDP development and significantly robust industrial manufacturing figures.  This arguably helps threat urge for food and commodity-linked currencies. New Zealand’s inflation knowledge, which hit the higher boundary of the RBNZ’s goal vary at 3.0% year-over-year, supplied assist for the New Zealand greenback throughout early buying and selling.

The London morning session introduced a shift in sentiment, with the greenback buying and selling blended however displaying a web bullish lean in opposition to main currencies. This reversal might have been pushed by merchants fading Chinese language knowledge optimism, presumably extra targeted on the extra regarding components of China’s knowledge; the contraction in mounted asset funding and continued weak spot within the property sector might have been of specific concern for threat sentiment.

Through the U.S. session, the greenback exhibited uneven value motion, initially pulling again earlier than mounting a modest rebound forward of the day by day shut. The foreign money in the end closed blended in opposition to main currencies with an arguably barely bullish lean. The greenback’s resilience got here regardless of expectations for Fed fee cuts, suggesting that issues about world development and financial challenges in different areas continued to supply underlying assist for the buck.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Financial Calendar

• New Zealand Stability of Commerce for September 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
• Australia RBA Jones Speech at 11:45 pm GMT
• New Zealand Credit score Card Spending for September 2025 at 2:00 am GMT
• Japan BoJ Himino Speech at 4:20 am GMT
• Swiss Stability of Commerce for September 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
• U.Okay. Public Sector Internet Borrowing Ex Banks for September 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
• Euro space ECB Lane Speech at 7:00 am GMT
• Euro space ECB President Lagarde Speech at 11:00 am GMT
• New Zealand International Dairy Commerce Value Index for October 21, 2025
• Canada Shopper Value Index Progress Fee for September 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Waller Speech at 1:00 pm GMT
• U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory Change for October 17, 2025 at 8:30 pm GMT
• Japan Stability of Commerce for September 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT

Tuesday’s calendar options a number of potential market-moving occasions, with Canada’s September CPI replace taking heart stage for financial knowledge after the Financial institution of Canada’s dovish quarterly surveys elevated expectations for a fee reduce on the October 29 assembly. Merchants will scrutinize whether or not inflation traits stay sufficiently subdued to justify further easing, with markets presently pricing in a excessive chance of a 25 foundation level discount.

U.S.-China commerce dynamics stay a key focus, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese language Vice Premier He Lifeng scheduled to satisfy in Malaysia this week forward of the deliberate Trump-Xi summit. President Trump’s current feedback suggesting willingness to ease tariffs on China if a deal emerges have supported market sentiment, although his reiteration that tariffs will improve with out an settlement by November 1 maintains underlying uncertainty.

The U.S. authorities shutdown continues to forged a shadow over markets, with Hassett’s feedback suggesting decision might come this week offering some optimism. Nonetheless, the shutdown’s drag on financial knowledge releases persists, with Friday’s delayed September CPI report representing a vital data level for Fed coverage expectations.

Central financial institution commentary from ECB officers Lagarde and Lane, together with Fed Governor Waller and varied Reserve Financial institution audio system, might present further coverage steering as markets navigate the complicated interaction of cooling inflation, moderating development, and protracted geopolitical tensions.

Keep frosty on the market foreign exchange associates and don’t overlook to take a look at our Foreign exchange Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!