The next is an excerpt from a coverage transient revealed on November 5, 2025 by the ZEW. Obtain the total transient on the hyperlink above or view it on ZEW.de right here.
Abstract
For the higher a part of the final decade, the worldwide minimal taxA tax is a compulsory fee or cost collected by native, state, and nationwide governments from people or companies to cowl the prices of normal authorities providers, items, and actions., or Pillar Two, has dominated worldwide tax coverage discussions. Growing out of the Base Erosion and Revenue ShiftingRevenue shifting is when multinational corporations cut back their tax burden by transferring the situation of their earnings from high-tax international locations to low-tax jurisdictions and tax havens. (BEPS) Mission on the Organisation for Financial Co-operation and Improvement (OECD), Pillar Two’s principal goal is to make sure that multinational enterprises (MNEs) with a consolidated group income of over EUR 750 million pay an efficient tax price of a minimum of 15 p.c in every jurisdiction the place they earn revenue. Some portion of the Pillar Two mannequin guidelines have been adopted by a number of dozen international locations around the globe, however, importantly, not by different giant economies such because the United States, India, or China. This particularly places European MNEs at a aggressive drawback vis-à-vis jurisdictions with out a home minimal tax system. Our estimates present that the extra compliance prices for affected European MNEs quantity to EUR 1.2 billion (as much as EUR 2.0 billion) and complete recurring prices quantity to EUR 517 million p.a. (as much as EUR 865 million p.a.). Because of the incentive for jurisdictions to implement a professional home minimal top-up tax (QDMTT), Pillar Two leaves a geographic asymmetry. Extra tax revenues would predominantly accrue to low-tax jurisdictions, with excessive tax jurisdictions receiving little to no improve. On the identical time, it’s possible that MNEs expense compliance prices within the jurisdictions the place they’re headquartered, usually high-tax jurisdictions. Moreover, Pillar Two incentivizes jurisdictions to maneuver from competitors on tax charges to much less clear subsidies, which might additionally end in much less disposable tax income. The mix of shedding worldwide competitiveness, growing compliance prices for companies and tax authorities, and the dearth of considerably extra income is forcing some Member States to rethink the coverage altogether.
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