When Nigel Morris tells you he’s frightened concerning the economic system, you hear. As business observers know, Morris co-founded Capital One and pioneered lending to subprime debtors, constructing an empire on understanding precisely how a lot monetary stress the typical American can deal with. Now, as an early investor in Klarna and different buy-now-pay-later firms like Aplazo in Mexico, he’s watching one thing that makes him deeply uncomfortable.

“To see that individuals are utilizing [BNPL services] to purchase one thing as fundamental and elementary as groceries,” Morris advised me on stage at Internet Summit in Lisbon this week, “I feel is a fairly clear indication that lots of people are struggling.”

The statistics again up his unease. Purchase-now-pay-later providers have exploded to 91.5 million customers in america, in keeping with the monetary providers agency Empower, with 25% utilizing the providers to finance their groceries as of earlier this yr, in keeping with survey information launched in late October by lending market Lending Tree.

These aren’t the discretionary purchases — the designer baggage and newest Apple headphones that BNPL was marketed for initially. Debtors aren’t paying it again, both. In keeping with Lending Tree, default charges are accelerating: 42% of BNPL customers made no less than one late fee in 2025, up from 39% in 2024 and 34% in 2023.

Storm clouds on the horizon

This isn’t only a client finance story; it’s a canary within the coal mine for all the venture-backed fintech ecosystem and past. It factors to what might develop right into a significant issue — one which echoes the warning indicators that preceded the 2008 monetary meltdown apart from one factor: it’s largely invisible.

Most BNPL loans aren’t reported to credit score bureaus, creating what regulators name “phantom debt.” Which means different lenders can’t see when somebody has taken out 5 totally different BNPL loans throughout a number of platforms. The credit score system is flying blind.

“In a world the place, if I’m a buy-now-pay-later supplier, and I’m not checking bureau information, I’m not feeding bureau information, I’m oblivious to the truth that Nigel might have taken out 10 of these items within the final week,” Morris defined. “[That’s] completely true.”

The numbers which can be obtainable are each ugly and dated. Shopper Monetary Safety Bureau information revealed in January of this yr — after the company issued market monitoring orders to main BNPL suppliers together with Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna — confirmed that roughly 63% of debtors originated a number of simultaneous loans sooner or later through the yr, and 33% took out loans from a number of BNPL lenders.

The info additionally revealed that in 2022, one-fifth of shoppers with a credit score document financed no less than one buy with a BNPL mortgage, up from 17.6% in 2021; about 20% of debtors had been heavy customers originating multiple BNPL mortgage on common every month, a rise from 18% in 2021; and the typical variety of new loans originated per borrower elevated from 8.5 to 9.5.

The borrower profile is regarding: as of 2022, practically two-thirds had decrease credit score scores, with subprime or deep subprime candidates being accredited 78% of the time.

To be clear, BNPL isn’t but a systemic menace on the size of the 2008 mortgage disaster. The whole market is measured in tons of of billions, not trillions. However the lack of visibility into this debt — mixed with its focus amongst already-stressed debtors — is price watching way more rigorously.

Certainly, provided that the economic system is worse now than three years in the past for a lot of subprime populations — notably in auto lending — these numbers are possible increased now. Current wage development has been constructive, however the cumulative impact of 2021-2023 inflation hasn’t been absolutely recovered, and key stress indicators like auto delinquencies and long-term unemployment proceed to indicate deterioration, in keeping with USAFacts, a nonpartisan information initiative.

As for why the information isn’t more moderen, thank regulatory upheaval. Below the Biden administration, the CFPB tried to deal with BNPL transactions like bank card purchases, bringing them beneath Reality in Lending Act protections.

The Trump administration reversed course. In early Could, the CFPB mentioned it might not prioritize enforcement of that rule. Days later, CFPB appearing director Russell T. Vought rescinded 67 interpretive guidelines, coverage statements, and advisory opinions relationship again to 2011, together with the BNPL rule. The company mentioned the rules offered “little profit to shoppers” and positioned a “substantial burden” on regulated entities. (Translation: BNPL firms lobbied efficiently.)

In actual fact, quickly after, the CFPB launched a brand new report with a surprisingly totally different message. Focusing solely on first-time debtors, the company mentioned clients with subprime or no credit score repaid their BNPL loans 98% of the time, and that there was no proof that BNPL entry causes debt stress.

The discrepancy between this rosy image and the 42% late fee price reveals the information hole on the coronary heart of the issue: We presently don’t have good visibility into what occurs to debtors over time, particularly these juggling a number of BNPL accounts. The optimistic report checked out first-time customers; the regarding information comes from all the person base.

New York in Could imposed licensing necessities on BNPL firms to fill the void. However state-by-state regulation creates a patchwork that subtle monetary firms can simply navigate round.

Requested if he sees parallels between this second and 2008, Morris — who has saved his finger on the heartbeat of all issues monetary as a fintech investor for the final 18 years — was cautious to not overstate the comparability.

“So I feel it’s a actual subject,” he mentioned of the economic system, selecting his phrases intentionally. “For those who take a half step again and we have a look at the U.S. client for the time being, and now we have numerous companies which can be in and round lending to this client — to this point, so good. Delinquency just isn’t rising but. Cost-offs usually are not rising but. However there’s clearly storm clouds on the horizon.”

He pointed to unemployment hitting 4.3%, its highest stage in virtually 4 years. He cited the “tumult round immigration and round tariffs and across the current authorities shutdown.” Small and medium companies “are very loath to speculate. Individuals have pulled again dramatically within the final 9 months given all that noise.”

Additionally within the combine is the top of the scholar mortgage fee moratorium — “the biggest asset class exterior of mortgage,” Morris famous. Roughly 5.3 million debtors are in default and one other 4.3 million are in late-stage delinquency, in keeping with a September Congressional Analysis Service evaluation.

Morris is cautious to notice that the present scenario isn’t but a disaster. “Delinquency just isn’t rising but. Cost-offs usually are not rising but,” he acknowledged. However the mixture of things — phantom debt, rising unemployment, the top of pupil mortgage forbearance, and regulatory rollback — creates situations the place issues might speed up rapidly.

The massive concern isn’t BNPL debt alone — it’s the cascading results. The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Richmond has warned that BNPL’s potential systemic threat comes from its “spillover results onto different client credit score merchandise.” In different phrases, BNPL stress is an early indicator of broader client monetary misery.

What’s necessary to know is that as a result of BNPL loans are usually smaller than bank card balances or auto loans, debtors are inclined to prioritize holding them present, which implies different, bigger money owed begin to default first. Somebody may need an ideal document on their 4 BNPL accounts whereas their bank card, automotive mortgage, and pupil mortgage all go delinquent.

Shopper lending takes ‘the mother take a look at’

Morris has lived each side of this equation. He revolutionized subprime lending at Capital One. Then he backed fintech startups attempting to disrupt the previous guard, together with Klarna, which went public earlier this yr and presently boasts a $13.5 billion market cap, regardless that it’s barely worthwhile (together with as a result of it absorbs all of the default threat of debtors).

Given these years of insights, I requested him on stage: “The place is the road between catering to and serving to an underbanked inhabitants and enabling individuals to dig a gap for themselves? Have these firms crossed it?”

Morris appeared genuinely to wrestle with the query, telling the investor attendees who’d gathered to be taught from the dialog that it’s a “very, very troublesome query to reply. I feel that the position of the ethical compass in client lending may be very, crucial.”

He described “the mother take a look at” from his Capital One days: “If this concept was introduced to your mom and he or she referred to as you up and mentioned, ‘Son, ought to I take this product?’ And if you happen to can’t unequivocally say sure, it’s a superb product, you shouldn’t be providing it to the American individuals.”

However once more, the issue is that BNPL firms aren’t clear about their returns, and most companies don’t report back to credit score bureaus, which — along with making visibility into the them difficult — means debtors can’t use profitable compensation to entry lower-cost credit score.

That’s a part of the enterprise mannequin, by the best way. “A few of these buy-now-pay-later firms don’t need that to occur” — that means for his or her clients to construct up their credit score scores — “as a result of they don’t need the buyer to graduate,” Morris mentioned.

Whereas Morris and I had been discussing these moral questions, the invisible downside he’s frightened about is getting exponentially larger, with BNPL bleeding into each nook of the monetary system, and the borders between this unregulated lending and conventional banking disappearing completely.

Klarna has been working as a licensed financial institution in Europe since 2017. Affirm now has practically 2 million debit cardholders who can finance purchases in bodily shops, bringing invisible installment debt into brick-and-mortar retail. Each firms are built-in into Apple Pay and Google Pay, making BNPL as frictionless as tapping your telephone.

To not be left behind, conventional finance is racing towards BNPL now, too. PayPal mentioned it processed $33 billion in BNPL spending in 2024, rising at 20% yearly. Main banks now let clients cut up purchases after the actual fact. Via offers with fee processors like Adyen, JPMorgan Funds, and Stripe, Klarna’s providers now attain tens of millions of retailers mechanically. What began as a distinct segment checkout possibility is changing into embedded monetary infrastructure.

Morris sees this shift taking place all over the place. “After I speak to a few of these software program firms that at the moment are embedding funds, lending and insurance coverage,” he advised me, “and also you say, ‘Okay, 5 years from now, the place are you going to make your cash?’” the reply surprises even veteran traders like him. “They are saying, ‘You understand what, I feel I’m going to make more cash in embedded finance than I’m in my core software program.”

Continued Morris: “It begins off as a pleasant little add-on, however when the powers of {the marketplace} drive down the returns within the core enterprise, it’s typically these financing companies which have the best longevity and market energy.”

Put one other means, complete industries are quietly remodeling from no matter they offered initially into monetary providers firms, with all of the related dangers however typically with out the related oversight.

A second bubble?

However the true hazard lies in what’s coming subsequent, which is business-to-business BNPL. The commerce credit score market, the place suppliers lend to firms shopping for their merchandise, represents $4.9 trillion in payables amongst American companies alone, per information cited by The Economist. That’s 4 instances bigger than all the U.S. bank card market. And BNPL firms, having conquered client lending, at the moment are shifting aggressively into this house.

When small companies acquire entry to BNPL, their spending will increase by a median of 40%, in keeping with B2B BNPL suppliers like Hokodo. It sounds nice for commerce till you understand what it means, which is extra debt, accumulating quicker, with even much less visibility than extra conventional client lending.

Certainly, the debt itself is being packaged and offered at a tempo that ought to alarm anybody who remembers 2008. Elliott Advisors final yr bought Klarna’s $39 billion British mortgage portfolio. In 2023, KKR agreed to purchase as much as $44 billion in BNPL debt from PayPal. As of June of this yr, Affirm had issued round $12 billion in asset-backed securities.

That is the subprime mortgage playbook enjoying out in actual time: slice up dangerous client debt, promote it to traders who consider they perceive the danger profile, and create layers of monetary engineering that obscure the place the precise publicity lies. Besides this time, a number of that underlying debt isn’t being reported to credit score bureaus.

My very own takeaway from my sit-down with Morris — and my analysis main into it — is that we’re watching two potential bubbles proper now, however just one is getting the eye it deserves, no less than in Silicon Valley, actually.

The AI bubble has been dominating headlines in current weeks, as a rising quantity or individuals query the $100 billion information facilities, sky-high valuations, and jaw-dropping enterprise rounds we’re seeing.

The BNPL scenario is totally different however no much less price watching. It’s invisible, evenly regulated, and affecting probably the most susceptible Individuals — which is roughly 40% of them. It’s individuals financing their meals in 4 installments and up to date graduates juggling pupil mortgage funds with three totally different BNPL accounts.

The champagne is flowing so freely in sure sectors of the economic system that it makes this very massive downside simple to miss, however when client debt turns into unsustainable, there’s going to be a number of ache throughout the board, and VCs and their venture-backed companies shall be amongst these to really feel it.

As Morris watches his BNPL investments from the opposite aspect of the desk, he appears to know these warning indicators higher than most. He’s not predicting a crash — he’s urging vigilance. The query is whether or not regulators will do something about it earlier than it’s too late.