Bitcoin is holding round $122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian hours after setting a document excessive at $126,200 earlier this week, with some market watchers nonetheless anticipating a surge to a document $140,000 later this month.
Economist Timothy Peterson stated in an X publish Tuesday that bitcoin has a 50% likelihood of rising to $140,000, citing simulations that have been primarily based on knowledge from the previous decade.
“There’s a 50% likelihood Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,” Peterson stated in an X publish on Wednesday. “However there’s a 43% likelihood Bitcoin finishes under $136k.”
Half of Bitcoin’s October positive aspects could have already occurred, in response to this AI simulation.
There’s a 50% likelihood Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
However there’s a 43% likelihood Bitcoin finishes under $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
BTC is up almost 10% for the reason that begin of October, which has traditionally been one of the bullish durations for all monetary belongings. The transfer has been pushed by document ETF inflows and exodus of cash from centralized exchanges.
Alternate balances have dropped to a six-year low of two.83 million BTC, with 170,000 cash withdrawn previously month. That blend of regular institutional shopping for and shrinking provide has stored pullbacks shallow. The U.S-listed spot ETFs have added greater than $60 billion since approvals in January 2204, together with $3.2 billion final week, the second-largest weekly consumption on document.
Buying and selling desks word that the trail of least resistance remains to be greater as “Uptober” performs out. Moreover, the outlook for S&P 500 stays constructive, supporting the bull case in BTC.
“Choices markets are pricing in a feral 5% likelihood for one more 10% rally within the SPX into year-end, and it’s more and more tough to discover a destructive catalyst to counteract that view,” stated Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, stated in a Telegram message. “We noticed little quick liquidation on the latest hole up, suggesting contributors are underweight with minimal danger exposures.”
Nonetheless, the optimism just isn’t with out danger.
“The crypto market is navigating a fragile steadiness between robust technical help and vital macroeconomic uncertainty,” stated Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Analysis. “Accumulation tendencies and institutional demand have propelled costs to new highs, however optimism remains to be uncovered to surprises from the Fed.”
The absence of latest financial knowledge releases as a result of ongoing U.S. authorities shutdown has depriving traders important insights wanted to make contemporary allocations. Some observers are apprehensive that lack of latest knowledge, notably inflation, could preserve the Fed from slicing charges.
When FOMC and Magazine-7 earnings arrive later this month, the info will collide with a market already prolonged and leaning bullish. That can determine if the following transfer is a clear run to $140,000 or a reset additional decrease.
BTC’s rally has paused previously 24 hours, because of profit-taking. Costs have dropped greater than 2%,, erasing a run-up since Sunday and knocking down XRP, Solana’s SOL, ether and Cardano’s ADA down as a lot as 7%.
BNB Chain’s BNB stands out with 1.5% positive aspects in the identical interval, the lone wolf within the inexperienced as its underlying ecosystem sees a flurry of contemporary exercise.
My lens: $125,000 is the battle line. ETF demand and whale withdrawals give the bulls a cushion, however the quiet from macro is not going to final.
