Key factors:
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Bitcoin is on monitor for one in every of its worst October performances since 2013.
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Earlier bull market years supplied a minimal of 40% positive aspects.
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The Federal Reserve might supply a last-minute reprieve at subsequent week’s assembly.
Bitcoin (BTC) “Uptober” hangs within the stability as worth threatens to print the primary “crimson” October since 2018.
Information from monitoring useful resource CoinGlass exhibits that at present costs, BTC/USD is 2.3% beneath its month-to-month beginning stage.
Bearish October hinges on 4% BTC worth loss
October 2025 has dissatisfied Bitcoin bulls up to now, as an early surge to new all-time highs rapidly changed into a liquidation nightmare.
Now appearing in a slim vary between round $107,000 and $111,500, the BTC worth has a lot floor to make up by the month-to-month candle shut.
CoinGlass demonstrates simply how far behind the market now’s: the common upside for October since 2013 has been 20%, which might put Bitcoin at over $130,000.
Alternatively, BTC/USD solely wants to finish October 4% decrease to seal its worst efficiency in 12 years.
THIS IS THE WORST UPTOBER EVER.
The one worse one was 2014 (-13%).
2013: +60%
2017: +50%
2021: +40%
2025: -4%Dangerous Uptober normally means one factor: MOONVEMBER. pic.twitter.com/6BMrNp4afD
— Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) October 23, 2025
The image is especially dangerous for a bull market 12 months — in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin gained a minimum of 40% in October.
Its weakest tenth month of the 12 months was 2014, with a 13% draw back.
Now or by no means for “Uptober” reclaim
In the meantime, contemporary knowledge from community economist Timothy Peterson places 2025 BTC worth motion into perspective.
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The most recent bull market stands out from the remainder, charts uploaded to X this week present — however not in the best way that bulls would love.
At the beginning of the month, nevertheless, Peterson noticed that the majority of “Uptober” upside tends to happen within the second half.
“60% of Bitcoin’s full-year efficiency happens after October third,” he added in prior analysis from September.
Information that the US Federal Reserve might sign the tip of quantitative tightening (QT) at its Oct. 29 assembly might present a “enormous sign” for markets, Peterson mentioned.
As Cointelegraph reported, expectations are that the Fed will decrease rates of interest regardless of an absence of inflation knowledge, pointing to extra favorable situations for crypto and danger belongings going ahead.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice.
