The Crypto Concern & Greed Index has simply printed 10 out of 100, which isn’t usually seen throughout a nasty week or a tough month, however solely at large stress moments, such because the March 2020 COVID crash, the post-FTX washout in late 2022, or the crash in February this 12 months.

At these ranges, the query stops being “how scared are individuals?” and turns into “does excessive concern really predict something?”

The index, created initially by Different.me based mostly on CNN’s inventory market index, compresses six market inputs right into a single each day quantity. Volatility contributes 25% of the rating, evaluating present drawdowns in opposition to 30- to 90-day baselines.

There at the moment are a number of variations of the index supplied by different knowledge firms, together with CoinMarketCap, CoinStats, and CoinGlass. All of which nonetheless present ‘Excessive Concern’ as the present state of play at press time.

Market momentum and quantity add one other 25%, capturing whether or not patrons are aggressive or exhausted. Social media exercise, Google Developments, Bitcoin dominance, and investor surveys present a complete image.

A rating of 10 sits close to absolutely the flooring of the dimensions, within the “Excessive Concern” band that runs from 0 to 24.

Different.me pitches it as a contrarian instrument: excessive concern could imply traders are overreacting and will mark a possibility, whereas excessive greed usually precedes corrections. They cease wanting claiming onerous predictive energy.

The designers body it as a sentiment barometer, not buying and selling recommendation. That caveat issues as a result of historical past exhibits these readings cluster round main stress factors and medium-term worth zones, however they don’t time bottoms with precision.

Historic analogues

In March 2020, Bitcoin fell roughly 50% in two days through the COVID panic, briefly touching $4,000 on Mar. 13. The following day, the Concern Index printed 8, the bottom studying in over 4 years.

Kraken’s analysis desk highlighted that quantity as capitulation-level concern. From these lows, BTC finally climbed to $60,000 by early 2021. The sub-10 print landed inside days of a serious cycle backside, however that backside solely held as a result of the Federal Reserve minimize charges to zero and launched limitless quantitative easing.

The sentiment sign aligned with the liquidity intervention, however it didn’t trigger the restoration.
November 2022 delivered one other excessive studying. The FTX collapse drove Bitcoin beneath $17,000, with lows close to $15,500. The Concern Index fell into the low teenagers, with some knowledge suppliers citing readings round 12.

AlphaPoint’s autopsy famous that the index languished in “excessive concern” for weeks whereas BTC chopped sideways close to cycle lows.

The sentiment backside and the worth backside weren’t on the identical day and even the identical week. From there, BTC finally surpassed $73,000 by March 2024 and broke $100,000 in December 2024.

This 12 months has produced only one excessive concern spike. In late February, the index reached 10 as Bitcoin fell under $86,000, marking the bottom sentiment studying for the reason that 2022 bear market.

Nonetheless, in mid-October, a shock US tariff triggered the most important crypto liquidation occasion on file, with greater than $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours, roughly 19 instances bigger than the liquidation volumes of the 2020 and 2022 crashes didn’t invoke an ‘Excessive Concern’ studying. It held simply above round 25 out of 100. 

Now, as Bitcoin tumbled again to the $93,000 value degree, the index reached 10 once more as Bitcoin fell under $93,000, erasing year-to-date beneficial properties and triggering greater than $1.1 billion in pressured liquidations.

Volatility clusters and compelled promoting

The Concern Index doesn’t react to a single unhealthy day. It tends to backside throughout volatility clusters, that are durations the place massive strikes bunch collectively slightly than arriving in isolation.

Educational work on Bitcoin confirms the basic volatility clustering phenomenon: previous volatility predicts future volatility, and excessive sentiment readings correlate strongly with spikes in buying and selling exercise and realized volatility throughout main cryptocurrencies.

The latest sell-offs match that sample. October’s tariff shock led to $19 billion in liquidations over 24 hours. November’s drop under $93,000 introduced $1.1 billion in pressured unwinds, with the RSI transferring into oversold territory for the primary time since FTX.

When the Concern Index prints 10, it captures the psychological expression of those volatility clusters: pressured unwinds, skinny order books, and macro shocks that feed into the identical sentiment studying.

This distinction issues for understanding what comes subsequent. Liquidity-driven bottoms type when flows and stability sheets drive the problem: liquidations exhaust sellers, central banks intervene, ETF flows flip optimistic, or funding charges normalize.

Sentiment bottoms mark the place psychology peaks, the place measured concern maxes out.

March 2020 marked a major low in liquidity. The crash began as a broad “every little thing should go” liquidation throughout all threat belongings. The Concern Index sank to eight, however the lasting backside was solely established after the Fed flooded markets with liquidity by fee cuts and bond purchases.
Sentiment aligned with the underside however didn’t trigger it.

The 2022 FTX episode blended each dynamics. The collapse triggered a basic liquidity shock as one of many crypto trade’s largest exchanges failed. BTC fell to the mid-$15,000s, and the Concern Index dropped to round 12.

Nonetheless, no central financial institution backstop arrived. As a substitute, the liquidity backside got here from time: bancrupt leverage was flushed out over months, surviving venues rebuilt, and a brand new structural demand supply emerged by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024.

The sentiment index spent a very long time in concern whereas the market was quiet.

In 2025, the image is strongly pushed by stream. BTC’s market depth has decreased from roughly $766 million in early October to round $535 million, making costs extra vulnerable to massive orders.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs skilled $866 million in web outflows on Nov. 13, marking the second-largest each day redemption since their launch in January 2024. Over the previous three weeks, cumulative outflows have totaled greater than $2.3 billion.

The concern studying at 10 signifies merchants are scared. The liquidation and ETF knowledge recommend whether or not pressured promoting has really run its course. Traditionally, sturdy cycle lows have required each sentiment capitulation and liquidity stabilization.

Close to-term Catalysts

Two forces dominate the near-term outlook: Federal Reserve coverage and ETF flows.

The Fed minimize charges by 25 foundation factors at its October assembly, resuming the easing cycle that began in September. Economists extensively anticipate one other quarter-point discount on the December 9-10 FOMC assembly, with additional cuts probably in 2026 if inflation continues to cooperate.

Decrease coverage charges usually help duration-sensitive belongings, equivalent to Bitcoin, however the present concern studying means that markets fear progress is deteriorating quicker than cuts may help.

ETF flows present the cleaner real-time sign. Binance’s analysis arm famous that ETF inflows and huge company buys from entities like Technique had been the dominant demand engines for BTC in 2025, and each have softened lately.

Weekly redemptions ran round $1.1 billion between November 10 and 14, pushed by a broader tech-led risk-asset selloff, falling on-exchange liquidity, and jitters over massive company holders.

That units up a easy rigidity. If ETF outflows stabilize or reverse to web shopping for across the December FOMC assembly, historical past means that excessive concern can mark a medium-term alternative window.

If outflows and liquidity erosion persist even after further fee cuts, then the present concern studying is the midpoint of an extended deleveraging part slightly than its finish.

Does excessive concern predict something?

The empirical reply reveals an amazing deal about stress, however much less in regards to the actual timing.

Educational work is blended. A 2024 Finance Analysis Letters paper finds a U-shaped relationship between the Concern Index and value synchronicity: each excessive concern and excessive greed result in extremely correlated, herd-driven strikes.

Different research discover that together with the index improves volatility forecasts, whereas a minimum of one 2023 paper studies little constant predictive energy for future returns.

What is powerful: excessive concern readings cluster close to the worst of volatility and compelled promoting and have, in 2020 and 2022, coincided with broad zones the place long-term traders who purchased and held had been effectively rewarded.

Nonetheless, the trail from these zones to a brand new uptrend can contain months of chop, false breaks, and extra ache.

At 10 out of 100, the Concern Index is screaming capitulation. Historical past says that’s when long-horizon patrons begin paying consideration, not when short-term merchants instantly acquire clairvoyance.