Bitcoin is buying and selling in a fragile state after slipping under $90,000 and now within the mid-$80,000s. This value motion has brought on some analysts to grapple with the likelihood that the subsequent main rally could also be additional away than many anticipate.
A current technical outlook from outstanding crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino provides weight to this concern. His evaluation focuses on the 6-week LMACD momentum indicator, which has simply crossed bearish for the primary time in years.
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Momentum Turns In opposition to Bitcoin On The 6-Week LMACD
The technical outlook highlights a powerful warning from Severino, who argues that Bitcoin is nowhere near staging the sort of explosive restoration many are ready for.
Severino’s message revolves round momentum, which he says is now firmly pointed downward. The momentum is cited utilizing the current crossover on the 6-week LMACD, which is thought for its decisive crossovers that verify long-term pattern adjustments.
The 6-week LMACD is a lagging sign, that means that by the point it flips bearish, Bitcoin is already effectively right into a downturn. The chart confirms this with a number of examples: Bitcoin entered prolonged pink phases lasting 812 days, 861 days, and 686 days following earlier bearish crossovers.
As a result of the sign lags value motion, Bitcoin usually bottoms lengthy after the crossover happens. Severino famous that bear-market lows all the time seem between 250 and three hundred and sixty five days after the bearish flip, not inside just a few weeks. Due to this fact, merchants anticipating a backside solely 40 days after the brand new sign are ignoring how constantly gradual this indicator behaves.
The chart additionally highlights how extreme every downturn turns into as soon as the LMACD flips bearish. Earlier cycles noticed drawdowns of roughly 69% to 75% from the second the cross occurred, despite the fact that Bitcoin had already fallen considerably earlier than the indicator flashed.
Please take note of this publish if you wish to perceive why Bitcoin is very unlikely to out of the blue spring again right into a bull run
One phrase: Momentum
The 6-week LMACD has a few of the cleanest crossovers representing pivotal pattern change affirmation factors. The sign lags,… pic.twitter.com/mq9uR2Fqec
— Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) November 22, 2025
A Potential Lengthy Street Earlier than Any Important Restoration
Though the LMACD sign simply crossed bearish, the present crossover remains to be unconfirmed for an additional 15 days, and the resemblance to previous cycles is one thing to bear in mind.
Severino famous that he’s not predicting the top of Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, however he’s urging merchants to cease anticipating speedy upside. Previous habits doesn’t assure the identical outcomes, and there’s no certainty that Bitcoin will drop one other 70% from right here like earlier cycles.
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The 6-week LMACD is a high-timeframe sign, and the shifts it captures mirror deep structural tendencies reasonably than short-term fluctuations. This implies Bitcoin may nonetheless be months away from its true cycle backside.
On the time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $85,670, down by 11% and 23% previously seven and 30 days, respectively. Severino’s evaluation signifies that the Bitcoin value may spend a protracted interval hovering round these ranges or expertise an additional decline earlier than any significant restoration into a brand new bull part begins.
Featured picture from See The Wild, chart from TradingView
