Canadians trying to beat the TSX index might contemplate investing in high-quality dividend shares poised to develop their payouts by way of market cycles. Within the final 10 years, the TSX index has returned 126% to shareholders. Nevertheless, if we alter for dividend reinvestments, cumulative returns are nearer to 204%.
Comparatively, Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) has returned 256% to shareholders in dividend-adjusted beneficial properties since November 2015. Valued at a market cap of $23.6 billion, Tourmaline is engaged within the acquisition, exploration, growth, and manufacturing of petroleum and pure gasoline properties within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It holds pursuits in properties situated within the Alberta Deep Basin, Northeast British Columbia Montney, and the Peace River Excessive Triassic oil complicated.
Regardless of its market-beating returns, the TSX power inventory is down nearly 28% from its all-time highs, providing you with an opportunity to purchase the dip. Let’s see why you may beat the TSX with this cash-gushing dividend inventory in your fairness portfolio.
How did the TSX inventory carry out in Q3 of 2025?
Tourmaline Oil delivered third-quarter (Q3) manufacturing of 634,750 barrels of oil equal (BoE) per day on the excessive finish of steerage regardless of dealing with the weakest AECO (Alberta Power Firm benchmark) pure gasoline costs in over 30 years.
The Canadian producer posted money stream of $720 million and earnings of $190 million throughout a difficult quarter tormented by main pipeline upkeep shutdowns that compelled important volumes into depressed native spot markets.
Tourmaline curtailed manufacturing throughout the worst pricing days however sustained low costs at AECO and Station 2, averaging simply $0.64 and $0.48 per thousand cubic toes, respectively, which negatively impacted Q3 outcomes.
Pipeline upkeep on each East Gate and West Gate export routes decreased Tourmaline’s entry to premium markets, together with the Gulf Coast and Western United States, by roughly 155 million cubic toes per day.
These volumes as a substitute bought into weak AECO and Station 2 spot costs, meaningfully impacting September pure gasoline income. The silver lining emerged in early October because the Nice Lakes pipeline power majeure ended and East Gate exports returned to regular ranges. West Gate upkeep wrapped up in November, setting the stage for improved This autumn pricing.
Trying forward, AECO pricing for the second and third quarters of 2026 at present averages $3.00 per thousand cubic toes in comparison with simply $1.18 throughout the identical interval in 2025. Administration expects additional foundation tightening as liquefied pure gasoline demand in Canada creates extra capability on native pipelines.
The corporate enhanced its strategic positioning by way of a 10-year pure gasoline storage settlement with AltaGas on the Dimsdale facility, offering entry to 6 billion cubic toes of storage capability beginning in April 2026, with potential enlargement to 10 billion cubic toes.
Tourmaline is pursuing the sale of its Peace River Excessive gentle oil and gasoline complicated to cut back company working prices additional and redirect capital towards higher-margin British Columbia development property.
It maintains its 2026 manufacturing steerage of 690,000 to 710,000 barrels of oil equal per day and its multi-year plan concentrating on 30% manufacturing development to 850,000 barrels of oil equal per day by 2031.
The board declared a particular dividend of $0.25 per share payable on November 25, alongside plans for the common quarterly base dividend of $0.50 per share in December.
Administration emphasised fiscal self-discipline, stating clearly that it’ll not use the steadiness sheet to fund particular dividends going ahead.
What’s the worth goal for the TSX dividend inventory?
Analysts monitoring the TSX inventory forecast free money stream to develop from $1 billion in 2024 to $1.80 billion in 2029. If TOU inventory is priced at 25 instances ahead FCF, which is decrease than the five-year common of 26.6 instances, it ought to achieve round 100% by the top of 2028.
