Australia’s shopper worth index rose 3.2% year-over-year within the third quarter of 2025, marking the very best inflation charge in over a 12 months and touchdown above the Reserve Financial institution of Australia’s 2-3% goal band for the primary time since Q2 2024.

Key Takeaways

• Headline CPI elevated 3.2% yearly in Q3 2025, considerably above the three.0% consensus forecast and accelerating from 2.1% in Q2
• Quarterly inflation rose 1.3%, pushed primarily by housing (+2.5%), recreation and tradition (+1.9%), and transport (+1.2%)
• Trimmed imply inflation climbed to three.0% yearly, up from 2.7% in Q2 – the primary enhance since December 2022
• Electrical energy prices surged 9.0% quarterly and 23.6% yearly, pushed by worth evaluations and the timing of presidency rebates
• Rental inflation continues easing to three.8% yearly from 4.5% in Q2, the weakest progress since September 2022
• Providers inflation rose to three.5% yearly whereas items inflation jumped to three.0% from 1.1% beforehand

Probably the most important worth rises in Q3 had been concentrated in housing, recreation and tradition, and transport sectors. Housing prices elevated 2.5% quarterly, with electrical energy rising 9.0% and property charges and prices climbing 6.3%.

The substantial electrical energy worth enhance displays each annual worth evaluations and the timing of presidency rebates. Excluding rebates, electrical energy costs would have risen 4.8% in Q3.

Hyperlink to the ABS Australian CPI Report (Q3 2025)

Property charges and prices recorded their largest quarterly rise since 2014, rising 6.3% as native councils applied charge evaluations. The rise displays increased normal charges throughout all capital cities, elevated waste levies, and extra prices.

Meals and non-alcoholic beverage inflation remained regular at round 3% yearly for the sixth consecutive quarter. Annual companies inflation elevated to three.5% from 3.3% in Q2, with notable acceleration in a number of classes.

All in all, these pushed the headline inflation charge past the RBA’s 2-3% goal band for the primary time since Q2 2024, presenting a big problem for policymakers trying to handle persistent worth pressures.

Market Reactions

Australian Greenback vs. Main Currencies: 5-min

Overlay of AUD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TradingView

The Australian greenback, which was shifting sideways forward of the CPI report, strengthened throughout the board following the discharge, with features starting from 0.17% to 0.35% towards main currencies.

The forex rallied strongest towards the British pound (+0.35%) and New Zealand greenback (+0.25%), whereas exhibiting extra modest appreciation versus the Japanese yen (+0.17%) a number of hours after the numbers had been printed.

AUD consolidated towards majority of its counterparts after its preliminary bullish response, as merchants may very well be holding out for greater market catalysts such because the FOMC Assertion and Trump-Xi assembly.