In his newest forecast, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF Worldwide Securities has cautioned that Apple Inc. AAPL might face a big drop in iPhone shipments by 2024.
What Occurred: In a weblog submit on Tuesday, Kuo shared his prediction — a 15% year-over-year decline in iPhone shipments as a result of rise in reputation of foldable telephones, Huawei Applied sciences‘s comeback in China, and revolutionary cellphone designs that incorporate generative synthetic intelligence.
In line with Kuo, the Tim Prepare dinner-led firm, which was the highest-ranking smartphone vendor in China final yr, has decreased shipments of “key upstream semiconductor parts” to roughly 200 million models.
He additionally acknowledged that Apple’s weekly shipments in China have dropped by 30-40% from a yr prior and expects this pattern to proceed.
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In distinction, Samsung Digital Co, Ltd SSNLF has elevated shipments of its Galaxy S24 collection by 5% to 10% as a consequence of its AI-powered options, indicating a higher-than-expected demand. Apple, in the meantime, has minimize its cargo forecast for the iPhone 15 within the first half of 2024.
“iPhone 15 collection and new iPhone 16 collection shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (in comparison with iPhone 14 collection shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 collection shipments in 2H23, respectively),” Kuo acknowledged.
In line with Kuo, main design modifications to the iPhone are usually not anticipated till 2025 “on the earliest,” suggesting that Apple’s “cargo momentum and ecosystem progress” might falter within the meantime.
Why It Issues: Apple’s place within the international smartphone market was bolstered in 2023 when it secured the highest spot in international smartphone shipments, surpassing Samsung after 13 years. This achievement got here regardless of a normal slowdown within the international smartphone business.
Nonetheless, a current report from the Client Intelligence Analysis Companions (CIRP) revealed that buyers are more and more selecting fashions with larger storage capacities regardless of a hunch in iPhone gross sales. This pattern, which has been positively impacting Apple’s common gross sales worth, might doubtlessly cushion the monetary affect of the anticipated decline in shipments.
Apple, which is scheduled to report first-quarter outcomes Thursday after the market shut, will seemingly announce earnings per share of $2.10 and income of $117.94 billion, in response to Benzinga Professional knowledge. This compares to the year-ago numbers of $1.88 and $117.2 billion.
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Disclaimer: This content material was partially produced with the assistance of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and printed by Benzinga editors.
