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VC 01: Contained in the New Exit Economic system: IPOs, Secondaries & AI with Meritech’s Alex Clayton


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We leveraged AngelList’s Rolling Fund product for Fund I, which was the proper car to scale up GTMfund in its first iteration. This construction allowed us to construct our community, and add income leaders whereas we raised and deployed capital concurrently, which was essential for getting early factors on the board and constructing relationships with founders.

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Who we sat down with

Alex Clayton is among the clearest minds in growth-stage investing, the individual elite founders flip to when the market is noisy and the stakes are excessive. A Basic Companion at Meritech Capital, Alex has constructed a status for breaking down complicated companies with unusual readability, from his legendary S-1 teardowns to his frameworks on energy legal guidelines, secondaries, and AI-native progress. Earlier than Meritech, he honed his craft at Spark Capital and Redpoint, backing breakout corporations like Braze, JFrog, Outreach, Pendo, Duo Safety, and RelateIQ. A former ATP tennis professional and Stanford group captain, Alex brings that very same self-discipline, sample recognition, and aggressive fireplace to evaluating the following generational corporations.

Mentioned on this episode

  • Why GAAP income and money burn are the 2 metrics that quietly govern every little thing.

  • How AI is altering progress charges, margins, and what “good” seems to be like in SaaS.

  • The rise of secondaries, and why they now rival or exceed IPO quantity.

  • How you can learn an S-1 like a professional (and what Alex seems to be for first).

  • Founder possession, fund lifecycles, and the way lengthy corporations actually keep personal.

  • Why energy legal guidelines in enterprise are getting even steeper within the AI period.

  • How AI is reshaping pricing fashions from seats to utilization and outcomes.

  • Which iconic personal corporations are most definitely to go public within the subsequent 3 years.

Episode highlights

02:40 — Is the IPO window actually again?

05:10 — Secondaries quietly outpacing IPOs

08:10 — The one two metrics that matter

10:56 — AI progress that breaks SaaS psychological fashions

26:20 — From “software program” to “SaaS” to “AI”… and again once more

29:25 — Seat-based pricing vs outcome-based AI pricing

34:55 — The capital tidal wave & longer personal lives

44:00 — Bubble vs greatest alternative of our careers

57:17 — What the remainder of the 2020s seem like

1:03:41 — Why GAAP income + money burn nonetheless win

Key takeaways

1. Hole income is the final word actuality verify.
Traders can argue over ARR definitions and experimental budgets, however GAAP income is the cash that really hit your checking account. Founders anchor on that quantity to grasp whether or not prospects are really utilizing and valuing the product, not simply signing bold contracts or pilots.

2. Money burn is the compression of each effectivity metric.
CAC payback, magic quantity, gross margin, and gross sales effectivity all present up in a single place: how a lot money you burn to generate that income. In an AI-native world the place metrics are in flux, burn stays the cleanest abstract of whether or not you’re constructing a enterprise or simply shopping for progress.

3. Secondaries at the moment are a core a part of the exit stack.
With corporations staying personal for 12–17 years, secondaries have exploded to 5x during the last decade and in some years surpass IPO quantity. That reshapes incentives for founders, early workers, and seed funds who can get significant liquidity lengthy earlier than a standard IPO.

4. The “10-year fund” is breaking below private-market actuality.
When iconic corporations compound privately for nicely over a decade, inflexible 10-year fund buildings cease matching how worth is created. Development funds more and more want flexibility, each to carry winners longer and to make use of secondaries as a strain valve for LP liquidity.

5. AI is blowing up conventional SaaS progress benchmarks.
The traditional “triple-triple-double-double” playbook is being changed by corporations going from zero to $50–100M in ARR in below two years. That creates extra tolerance for imperfect churn or margins on the progress stage, so long as the demand curve is clearly non-linear.

6. ARR is getting fuzzier, simply as stakes get larger.
From experimental AI budgets to GMV being labeled as ARR, income definitions are loosening exactly when {dollars} are scaling quickest. Subtle traders are digging into what’s recurring, what’s utilization, and what’s one-off experimentation slightly than taking headline ARR at face worth.

7. AI received’t flip software program right into a toaster market.
Sure, some classes will commoditize, however the perfect founders will use AI to ship exponentially higher outcomes, not simply parity options. Enterprise returns will accrue to markets the place the customer deeply cares in regards to the product and the place the perfect product can seize outsized share, not simply compete on worth.

8. Pricing is shifting from seats to outcomes and consumption.
As software program begins to exchange work, not simply workflows, patrons assume by way of headcount saved and outcomes delivered. That naturally favors platform charges plus usage-based pricing, aligning income extra carefully with worth and creating greater long-term upside for true class leaders.

9. We’re in a bubble, and that doesn’t contradict huge upside.
There’s clear froth in AI, however that may coexist with the creation of the most important know-how corporations we’ve ever seen. The job for traders is to carry each truths without delay: be disciplined on unit economics and sturdiness whereas staying open to non-consensus, power-law outcomes.

10. Focus is a superpower in an AI-saturated deal circulation.
With a firehose of latest AI corporations, instruments, and narratives, it’s simpler than ever for traders to chase noise. The sting shifts to funds that keep anchored on their core stage, sectors, and strengths, and say no to great-sounding offers that sit exterior that strike zone.

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