Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson says the market simply lived by means of a uncommon “positioning rinse” that has left crypto consensus dealing with the incorrect course at exactly the incorrect time. “There’s about 1, at most 2, instances per 12 months the place I really feel like I’m seeing issues at 180 diploma odds with the crypto twitter consensus,” Thompson wrote on October 20, pointing to prior episodes in September 2023, September 2024, and February 2025 as related inflection factors for sentiment. “I’m utilizing the beneath 3 tweets to summarize consensus,” he added, linking to contemporaneous bearish posts from @qwqiao, @blknoiz06, and @cburniske to border the prevailing temper.

Why The Crypto Bull Run Extremely Doubtless Isn’t Over

Thompson’s core declare is simple and intentionally contrarian: the October 10 open-interest flush was not a cause to show medium-term bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, however a capitulation that sometimes precedes sturdy ahead returns. “Present setup for BTC and ETH is uncommon – largest positioning rinse in historical past of crypto whereas standing on doorstep of macro goldilocks. 10/10 liquidation cleared extra leverage in $ and % of OI than total Jan–Apr ’25 interval. Alternative forward is just like pre-Trump victory ’24,” he stated.

Associated Studying

The message is just not a victory lap, he emphasised: “It’s foolish to even should say this however the referenced tweets will not be about being incorrect or proper – merely references to sentiment… Generally it’s higher to watch extra, love extra and say much less.”

The positioning argument rests on a easy historic heuristic: promoting “after” a deep deleveraging occasion is normally a poor commerce as soon as compelled sellers have been flushed. “Anybody wish to run the maths on what proportion of -30–40% open curiosity crypto liquidation occasions was it a good suggestion to get bearish AFTER it occurred?” Thompson requested

He made his speculation specific: “Getting medium time-frame bearish, e.g. 40/80/120 days ahead, after a big scale liquidation occasion is a poor danger/reward the overwhelming majority of the time, particularly whether it is of the magnitude of the ten/10 occasion.” Market veteran Alex Krüger and Framework Ventures co-founder Vance Spencer every replied “0%,” a succinct endorsement of that probabilistic view.

Associated Studying

Past positioning, Thompson ties the crypto setup to a macro backdrop he repeatedly characterizes as “goldilocks.” In late summer time, he and Felix Jauvin mentioned gold’s bull case on Ahead Steerage; that thesis, Thompson says, crystallized when a extensively circulated picture confirmed Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Narendra Modi clasping palms on the Shanghai Cooperation Group summit.

“When this image leaked it was nail within the coffin and the obvious purchase gold sign you could possibly get after its 4–5 month consolidation,” he wrote, arguing that Bitcoin now sits in an identical posture after a ~10-month consolidation.

“Principally getting the identical factor now… Don’t miss the forest for the timber,” pointing to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s policy-push submit. “Heading to D.C. tomorrow, excited to roll up our sleeves with key choice makers to get market construction to @POTUS’s desk”—as a part of a constructive structural backdrop for US market plumbing.

In case you watch @ForwardGuidance, you’ll recall @fejau_inc and my gold rants again in late summer time. When this image leaked it was nail within the coffin and the obvious purchase gold sign you could possibly get after its 4-5 month consolidation.

Principally getting the identical factor now after a… pic.twitter.com/ry29kkKocz

— Quinn Thompson (@qthomp) October 22, 2025

At press time, BTC traded at $109,101.

Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com