Markets staged a strong rebound on Monday as merchants embraced renewed optimism about U.S.-China commerce negotiations, sending equities hovering to their greatest session since Could whereas valuable metals prolonged their record-breaking rally.

The danger-on shift adopted President Trump’s conciliatory weekend social media publish about China, briefly easing fears about escalating tariffs. Gold’s relentless advance continued with recent all-time highs above $4,090, whereas oil bounced again sharply from latest weak spot.
Take a look at the headlines and financial updates you will have missed within the newest buying and selling session!

Take a look at the headlines and financial updates you will have missed within the newest buying and selling session!

Headlines & Knowledge:

• President Trump posted on Reality Social Sunday: “Don’t fear about China, it should all be wonderful! Extremely revered President Xi simply had a nasty second. He doesn’t need Despair for his nation, and neither do I. The usA. needs to assist China, not damage it!!!”
• Trump visited Center East to have fun Gaza ceasefire deal, with meals and help starting to stream into the area
• China Stability of Commerce for September 2025: 90.45B (96.0B forecast; 102.33B earlier)
  • China Imports for September 2025: 7.4% y/y (3.5% y/y forecast; 1.3% y/y earlier)
  • China Exports for September 2025: 8.3% y/y (5.2% y/y forecast; 4.4% y/y earlier)
• Gold futures attain recent report excessive above $4,096 per ounce on safe-haven demand and Fed fee minimize expectations
• Federal Reserve Financial institution of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson signaled she favors two extra quarter-point fee cuts this 12 months, trying by way of tariff impacts on inflation
• Financial institution of England policymaker Megan Greene instructed holding charges till at the least March 2026 on inflation persistence considerations
• Germany Wholesale Costs for September 2025: 0.2% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; -0.6% m/m earlier); 1.2% y/y (0.9% y/y forecast; 0.7% y/y earlier)
• New Zealand Providers NZ PSI for September 2025: 48.3 (50.4 forecast; 47.5 earlier)
• Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned he expects Trump-Xi assembly “will nonetheless be on” with staff-level conferences anticipated this week

Broad Market Worth Motion:

Greenback Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView

Monday’s session delivered a dramatic reversal from Friday’s selloff as markets seized on President Trump’s weekend olive department to China, triggering a strong rally throughout danger property that prolonged all through the buying and selling day.

The S&P 500 surged 1.6% in its greatest single-day efficiency since Could, closing at 6,647.5 and increasing a bull market that has now added $28 trillion in worth over three years. The index gapped larger on the Asia open following Trump’s conciliatory social media publish and maintained its upward momentum all through the session. Know-how shares led the advance, with chipmakers leaping practically 5% as a key semiconductor index posted its strongest efficiency in months. The rally got here regardless of ongoing questions on earnings sustainability and elevated valuations, with the S&P 500 now buying and selling round 22 instances ahead earnings.

Gold continued its extraordinary run, climbing 2.3% to determine yet one more report excessive above $4,109 per ounce through the session. The dear metallic’s relentless advance mirrored a number of supportive elements: expectations for additional Federal Reserve fee cuts, ongoing considerations about central financial institution independence, rising international fiscal strains, and protracted demand for safe-haven property amid commerce and geopolitical uncertainty. Silver maintained its momentum above $51, buying and selling at ranges not seen since 2011.

WTI crude oil rebounded forcefully, surging 2.67% to $59.20 as improved danger sentiment and easing commerce tensions overshadowed ongoing provide considerations. The restoration got here after oil had tumbled on experiences that OPEC+ may contemplate further manufacturing will increase. The bounce mirrored each brief protecting and renewed optimism about demand prospects if U.S.-China tensions proceed to de-escalate.

Bitcoin posted stable positive factors of 1.08%, climbing above $115,500 because the cryptocurrency continued to profit from its rising function instead asset amid conventional market volatility. The digital asset remained effectively beneath its early October report excessive of $126,223 however confirmed resilience after weekend weak spot that had seen costs drop as little as $104,782.

The ten-year Treasury yield rose 0.57% to commerce round 4.1% because the risk-on transfer diminished demand for safe-haven bonds. The rise got here regardless of Fed policymaker Paulson’s dovish remarks about supporting two extra fee cuts this 12 months, suggesting that improved danger sentiment outweighed financial coverage concerns within the bond market.

FX Market Habits: U.S. Greenback vs. Majors:

Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView

The dollar skilled dramatic swings on the Asian open as markets digested President Trump’s weekend social media publish about China. The conciliatory tone towards Beijing initially triggered greenback volatility as merchants unwound Friday’s response to damaging rhetoric on tariffs from the U.S.. The greenback discovered its footing because the Asian session progressed, with volatility step by step subsiding.

Through the London session, the greenback established clearer upward momentum, gaining towards most main currencies as European merchants reassessed the basic backdrop. Whereas Trump’s softer rhetoric on China eased quick commerce warfare fears, ongoing uncertainties about tariff insurance policies, international fiscal sustainability, and the timing of central financial institution coverage changes continued to assist defensive positioning within the dollar.

The greenback’s energy continued by way of the U.S. session, although with a extra blended character. The forex maintained positive factors towards European currencies and the yen, whereas giving again some positive factors towards the Aussie and Kiwi. Fed policymaker Paulson’s feedback supporting two extra fee cuts in 2025 had restricted affect on greenback buying and selling, suggesting markets had already priced in or are fatigued of this dovish stance.

The greenback’s capability to publish internet positive factors regardless of improved danger urge for food and dovish Fed commentary suggests underlying assist from commerce coverage uncertainty and relative development considerations in different main economies, although the blended efficiency signifies markets stay cautiously positioned forward of key information releases and speeches, in addition to any potential surprises on the tariff entrance.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Financial Calendar

• New Zealand Digital Card Retail Gross sales for September 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
• U.Ok. BRC Retail Gross sales Monitor for September 2025 at 11:01 pm GMT
• Australia NAB Enterprise Confidence for September 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
• Australia RBA Assembly Minutes at 12:30 am GMT
• Germany Inflation Charge Closing for September 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
• U.Ok. Employment State of affairs Replace for August 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
• Swiss Producer & Import Costs for September 2025 at 6:30 am GMT
• China Financial Developments for September 2025
• Germany ZEW Financial Sentiment Index for October 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
• U.S. NFIB Enterprise Optimism Index for September 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
• U.Ok. BoE Taylor Speech at 12:00 pm GMT
• Canada Constructing Permits for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Bowman Speech at 12:45 pm GMT
• Canada BoC Rogers Speech at 4:10 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speech at 4:20 pm GMT
• U.Ok. BoE Gov Bailey Speech at 5:00 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Waller Speech at 7:25 pm GMT
• U.S. Fed Collins Speech at 7:30 pm GMT

Tuesday’s calendar options a number of high-impact occasions that might drive vital market volatility. The UK employment scenario replace arrives at a important juncture, with markets intently watching wage development information following BOE policymaker Greene’s hawkish Monday feedback about holding charges into 2026. Any stickiness in wage will increase may assist sterling whereas reinforcing expectations for a cautious BOE easing path. For a extra detailed evaluation on the occasion try our Occasion Information!

Germany’s ZEW financial sentiment index will present perception into how investor confidence is evolving amid persistent Eurozone development considerations and France’s ongoing political disaster. A weaker-than-expected studying may add stress to the euro and reinforce divergence between Fed and ECB coverage paths.

China’s financial developments information will likely be scrutinized for indicators of credit score development and coverage assist effectiveness as Beijing navigates commerce tensions with the U.S. The info takes on added significance following Monday’s stronger-than-expected commerce figures and ongoing questions on whether or not stimulus measures are gaining traction.

The marquee occasion is Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 4:20 pm GMT, which may present essential steering on the central financial institution’s pondering because it navigates the strain between cooling labor markets and elevated inflation expectations from tariffs.

Following Philadelphia Fed President Paulson’s Monday dovish remarks supporting two extra cuts this 12 months, markets will parse Powell’s language for affirmation of the easing path or any pushback towards aggressive fee minimize pricing. Any feedback on the Fed’s method to tariff-induced inflation or the slim base of financial development highlighted by Paulson may set off short-term strikes throughout asset courses.

Keep frosty on the market foreign exchange associates and don’t neglect to take a look at our Foreign exchange Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!