Bitcoin rose to $126,223 on Monday, marking one other document because the U.S. shutdown, softer greenback, and surging ETF inflows converged to tighten provide and prolong the rally.
As of writing, the cryptocurrency traded close to $124,000, constructing on a 15% weekly acquire that has pulled majors greater throughout the board.
Elsewhere, bitcoin has damaged information in euro and Swiss franc phrases, crossing EUR 106,000 and CHF 99,600, as nicely in Japan. The Asian nation’s new prime minister is signaling a return to Abenomics-style easing, which performs instantly into the market’s narrative of simpler liquidity situations forward, as CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole famous on Monday.
The broader market picked up a bid, following bitcoin’s lead. Ether surged 4% to $4,700, its highest in three weeks, with merchants eyeing the $4,800–$5,000 vary if momentum holds.
BNB continues to be the outlier, up greater than 20% previously week and setting recent information above $1,240, a transfer that highlights rotation into ecosystem names when the bottom asset has a bid. Dogecoin gained 6% to $0.26, XRP ticked greater to just about $3, and Solana has added over 12% previously seven days.
The breadth of this rally is noteworthy. The full crypto market capitalization rose to $4.27 trillion earlier than easing barely to $4.24 trillion. The sentiment index stands at 71 (greed), near ranges final seen in August however nonetheless wanting euphoria. That leaves room for extension with out the indicators of a blow-off high.
ETF-led rally
BTC’s transfer to document highs wasn’t a leverage-led spike. Weekly spot ETF inflows crossed $3.2 billion, the very best since November 2024 and second-largest on document, pushing whole allocations since January to greater than $60 billion, based on knowledge supply SoSoValue.
This ETF-driven demand is echoed by some analysts.
“Bitcoin’s climb above $124,000, fueled by $3.2 billion in spot ETF inflows, underscores deepening institutional conviction and a maturing market narrative,” mentioned Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, in a notice to CoinDesk.
In the meantime, FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich warned that long-term holders have been lively sellers round these ranges since July, that means provide is ready if demand falters.
BTC’s trade balances have fallen to a six-year low of two.83 million BTC, with 170,000 withdrawn previously month, signaling cash shifting off exchanges and into longer-term storage. It’s that mixture of regular ETF shopping for and shrinking provide that seemingly underpins this transfer.
Lingering political uncertainty
The U.S. authorities shutdown is getting into its second week, stalling key financial releases and creating uncertainty about fiscal course as buyers search readability on progress.
Related shutdowns have traditionally nudged capital towards onerous belongings, reminiscent of gold and bitcoin, reflecting issues about political stability and its influence on fiat or fairness markets.
In 2013, BTC practically doubled by means of October as Washington gridlock endured, whereas gold added greater than 3% throughout the identical interval. The 2018–19 closure was totally different — bitcoin slipped about 10% over 5 weeks whereas gold barely moved. The most recent document excessive means that the market is following the 2013 sample.
On the similar time, the greenback has softened, eradicating a headwind for dollar-denominated belongings, and bond markets are beginning to worth a extra cautious Federal Reserve.
Merchants more and more count on {that a} mixture of weaker knowledge prints and financial paralysis will immediate policymakers to tread fastidiously on charges or at the least keep away from additional tightening.
For bitcoin, that reads as simpler liquidity situations forward, with the type of dovish bias that has traditionally accompanied main upside runs within the general market.
As a impartial observer, $125,000 appears to be like to be a magnet and now a battle line.
