Australian SMEs are extra polarised than ever about their short-term outlook, with the hole between essentially the most optimistic and pessimistic six-month income forecasts hitting an all-time excessive.
The September 2025 version of ScotPac’s bi-annual SME Progress Index Report reveals that 59% of SMEs anticipate income to rise within the six months to March 2026, forecasting a document common improve of 10%.
In stark distinction, 35% anticipate income to fall by a mean of -14% over the identical interval. Essentially the most bullish SMEs are projecting progress of +19%, whereas essentially the most pessimistic are bracing for a 30% decline.
This 49-point unfold between the highest and backside forecasts is the biggest divide within the 11-year historical past of the SME Progress Index, highlighting the deep uncertainty that at present exists in Australia’s enterprise panorama.
Different associated findings from the 23rd consecutive SME Progress Index Report embrace:
- SMEs in mining are the nation’s most optimistic, predicting common income progress of 81%, adopted by Enterprise Companies (73%), Transport (66%), Agriculture (61%) and Wholesale (59%).
- Building business SMEs stay essentially the most pessimistic with solely 26% anticipating progress.
- Western Australia reclaimed its mantle as essentially the most constructive state, with 91% of SMEs anticipating income progress, adopted by QLD (84%) and NSW (61%).
- Victorian SMEs are essentially the most adverse with 67% anticipating six-month income decline.
- A document 25% of SMEs are in outright contraction mode – 3 instances greater than the primary Progress Index Report in 2014
ScotPac CEO, Jon Sutton mentioned the expansion outlook for SMEs has by no means been extra divided throughout borders and enterprise sectors.
“As soon as once more SMEs are displaying their outright resilience with almost 60% anticipating progress regardless of rising value challenges throughout our financial system,” Sutton mentioned.
“Nonetheless, the alarm bells on the different finish of the spectrum are deafening with one in 4 SMEs now describing themselves as being in outright contraction.
“This divergence highlights that enterprise circumstances are not uniform, and SMEs at each stage of the expansion cycle ought to be leaning on their brokers and advisors to assist them navigate what comes subsequent.
“For these with a progress mindset, agility is vital – being able to seize alternatives by accessing scalable finance when wanted.
“For these underneath stress, it’s important to work with trusted advisors and finance companions like ScotPac on methods comparable to working capital optimisation, debt restructuring, and cash-flow administration.”
Sutton mentioned for over 35 years, ScotPac has partnered with hundreds of enterprise homeowners and brokers to ship versatile funding options that meet SMEs the place they’re.
“Whether or not it’s supporting growth or serving to stabilise operations, ScotPac’s options are constructed across the realities of operating a enterprise,” he mentioned.
“Our new Line of Credit score – giving SMEs the flexibility to attract funds on demand and solely pay for what they use – is only one instance of how ScotPac can present the proper finance on the proper time for any enterprise.”
