USD/CAD is sporting a potential reversal sample forward of right this moment’s mid-tier financial reviews.
Is the greenback in for extra losses towards the Loonie?
Earlier than shifting on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out USD/JPY’s uptrend pullback forward of the U.S. retail gross sales report. Make sure you try if it’s nonetheless an excellent play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets within the final buying and selling classes:
Recent Market Headlines & Financial Knowledge:
U.S. retail gross sales for December: 0.6% m/m (0.4% forecast, 0.3% earlier); Core retail gross sales: 0.4% m/m (0.2% forecast, 0.2% earlier)
U.S. industrial manufacturing for December: 0.1% m/m (-0.1% forecast, 0.0% earlier)
NAHB: Falling mortgage charges have bumped up the U.S. builder confidence index for newly-built single-family houses from 37 to 44 in January
In an interview, ECB President Lagarde admitted that it’s “seemingly” that the central financial institution would elevate its rates of interest in the summertime
Fed’s January Beige E book report confirmed that “practically all Districts cited a number of indicators of a cooling labor market”
In its newest report, OPEC maintained its 2.2 million bpd oil demand for 2024, upped its 2025 demand outlook from 1.7 million bpd to 1.8 million bpd, and raised its 2025 GDP forecast from 2.6% to 2.8%
New Zealand’s meals value index slowed by 0.1% m/m (-0.2% earlier) in December
Japan’s core equipment orders fell extra sharply than anticipated, down by 4.9% m/m in November and underscored the uncertainty of home and international outlook
RICS: Decrease mortgage pushed up U.Okay.’s housing market demand and helped enhance the home value stability from -41% to -30% in December
Melbourne Institute’s survey confirmed inflation expectations over the subsequent 12 months from January had been unchanged at 4.5%
Australia misplaced a web 65.1K jobs in December – the second-largest loss because the 1993 recession – as 41,400 part-time jobs had been offset by a 106,600 loss in full-time positions (15.4K forecast, 72.6K earlier)
Australia’s unemployment price remained at 3.9% as anticipated regardless of the labor market participation price dipping from 67.3% to 67.1%
Japan’s industrial manufacturing was confirmed at -0.9% m/m in November as anticipated
Eurozone’s present account surplus for November: 24.6B EUR (30.9B EUR forecast, 32.3B EUR earlier)
Value Motion Information
Overlay of JPY vs. Main Currencies Chart by TradingView
With not a variety of new, game-changing themes within the markets, some merchants had time to take income from their intraweek positions.
JPY, particularly, noticed some bullish momentum because the U.S. greenback gave up a few of its pips whereas the markets are nonetheless kinda fearful about international development.
JPY is buying and selling within the inexperienced throughout the board, with the largest beneficial properties logged towards USD and CHF whereas AUD and GBP are seeing the least pips gained towards the secure haven.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Financial Calendar:
SNB Chairman Jordan to present a speech at 10:30 am GMT
ECB assembly minutes at 12:30 pm GMT
FOMC member Bostic to present a speech at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. preliminary jobless claims at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. housing begins at 1:30 pm GMT
ECB President Lagarde to present a speech at 3:15 pm GMT
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories at 4:00 pm GMT
BusinessNZ manufacturing index at 9:30 pm GMT
Japan’s nationwide core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
Use our new Foreign money Warmth Map to shortly see a visible overview of the foreign exchange market’s value motion! ️
USD/CAD 15-min Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView
A little bit of profit-taking from the U.S. greenback’s beneficial properties seemingly contributed to USD/CAD turning decrease from the 1.3540 intraweek resistance and dipping again to its sub-1.3500 ranges.
It might have additionally helped the oil-related Canadian greenback that geopolitical tensions within the Center East are heating up, and that OPEC‘s newest outlook report was typically constructive with 2024’s outlook unchanged and 2025’s figures estimated increased.
On a technical foundation, USD/CAD is now buying and selling beneath each the 100 and 200 SMAs within the 15-minute timeframe. Actually, the pair is sporting a potential Head and Shoulders bearish sample with the S1 (1.3480) serving because the “neckline.”
Will we see a bearish breakout right this moment? Or will USD/CAD prolong its beneficial properties?
We’ll know extra through the U.S. session when Uncle Sam prints a bunch of mid-tier financial reviews. Higher-than-expected knowledge may deliver the attractive again for the Dollar and draw sufficient USD/CAD consumers into retesting the 1.3500 Pivot Level and psychological stage.
If the risk-friendly buying and selling surroundings extends to the U.S. session buying and selling, nevertheless, then we may even see USD/CAD commerce beneath the 1.3480 stage that we’re watching.
Till we see bearish elementary and technical triggers, although, USD bulls could have barely extra causes to maintain USD/CAD across the 1.3500 space or increased.
Watch the newswires carefully to see if USD/CAD will hit its potential assist stage and the way the markets will react if it does dip to the inflection level!
