Crypto analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) warned on September 14 {that a} acquainted—and traditionally unfriendly—market sample has reappeared: speculative leverage pouring into altcoins whereas Bitcoin’s derivatives positioning stays conspicuously muted. “Historical past doesn’t repeat, however it typically rhymes, and proper now a significant warning sign is flashing,” he mentioned, stressing that his message is to not incite panic however to flag a shift in market local weather that “any sensible investor” mustn’t ignore.

On the core of Maartunn’s analysis is open curiosity, the notional worth of lively futures and perpetual positions throughout venues. “We maintain throwing round this time period, open curiosity. What’s it? Effectively, to place it merely, it’s a option to measure the overall amount of cash and lively bets available in the market. When open curiosity rises, it means new cash, typically speculative cash, is coming in,” he defined.

Crypto’s ‘Musical Chairs’ Second

In his learn, altcoin open curiosity is “via the roof,” whereas Bitcoin—“the anchor of the entire market”—is flat. The divergence, he argued, is exactly what preceded the late-2024 drawdown. “Altcoin hypothesis is heating up — the hole between BTC and Altcoin Open Curiosity simply hit a brand new excessive,” Maartuun wrote through X.

Maartunn anchored his warning in a current analogue. “Again in December of 2024, the very same story performed out. Altcoin hypothesis was operating wild, whereas Bitcoin was simply stagnating. And the outcome? It wasn’t fairly.” The speedy aftermath, he recalled, was a pointy, broad-based markdown after which a tedious consolidation.

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“We’re speaking [about] a 30% drop,” he mentioned of Bitcoin’s transfer, including that such declines “don’t occur in a vacuum.” Liquidity retreats to security, correlations rise, and “these high-flying, speculative altcoins… get hit the toughest.” What adopted was “three entire months” of rangebound “chop modus,” a interval that traditionally bleeds momentum methods and punishes late-cycle leverage.

For example how leverage-heavy phases can abruptly unravel, he leaned on a metaphor. “It’s a high-stakes sport of musical chairs,” he mentioned. So long as flows are optimistic, “the occasion’s in full swing, and everybody looks like a genius.” The structural threat emerges for the time being “the music stops”—an antagonistic headline, an exogenous macro shock, or just fatigued bid depth.

“Everybody makes a mad sprint for a chair, for security. However in a panic, there simply aren’t sufficient chairs for everyone, and somebody all the time will get left holding the bag.” In crypto’s derivatives-driven microstructure, that sprint interprets into forceful de-risking and liquidations that may cascade throughout skinny order books.

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Crucially, Maartunn framed his evaluation as situational threat—not a deterministic crash name. “This isn’t about predicting a crash or making an attempt to trigger a panic, in no way,” he mentioned on the outset. The purpose, reasonably, is to acknowledge that the “rising break up available in the market” between exuberant altcoin leverage and a subdued Bitcoin base “can’t final without end.” “The extent of threat available in the market has clearly gone up,” he concluded. “The music is completely nonetheless taking part in, however it’s in all probability a very good time to know the place the emergency exits are.”

The open query is the one he leaves viewers with: whether or not that is merely “the market… having fun with the music earlier than one other painful dip,” as in December 2024, or whether or not “this time actually [is] completely different.” In both case, Maartunn’s thesis hinges on the identical observable setup: a momentum-chasing build-up of altcoin derivatives publicity with no confirming growth in Bitcoin’s positioning. If the previous is a information, the divergence is much less a timing instrument than a warning label on the present section of the cycle—one which tends to finish not when everybody expects it, however when liquidity blinks.

At press time, the overall crypto market cap stood $4.0 trillion.

Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com