A brand new market-cap–primarily based Elliott Wave examine from unbiased chartist Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend) argues that Stellar’s native token XLM is positioned for a fifth-wave advance that would raise its valuation roughly 5x from right here. In a video revealed on September 10, the analyst says he prefers to mannequin market cap relatively than the greenback value as a result of XLM’s provide dynamics have periodically distorted spot-price returns.

Stellar (XLM) Set To Explode 400%

“ this… the USD value is just up 12,000% whereas the market cap chart [is] up 52,000%. So… there may be some form of inflationary stress on the asset… Stellar, we have now to make use of the market cap chart to measure out precisely the place the worth is gonna go,” he mentioned, earlier than mapping Fibonacci extensions on the month-to-month and weekly time frames.

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From a cycle that he dates to Might 2016, the analyst counts 5 waves up into the January 2018 peak, 5 down into March 2020, after which a brand new, ongoing motive construction that has already printed waves one by way of 4, with wave 4 “completed in April of this yr.”

He highlights an “88% week” in July that he interprets as a part of the transition into the terminal wave. The crux of his name comes from overlapping Fibonacci projections: measuring the third-to-fourth-wave drawdown and the bigger 2021 vary, he finds confluence close to the three.618 extension, which locations XLM’s absolutely diluted valuation zone between roughly $60 billion and $71 billion. “My major there may be going to be $60 billion available on the market cap… might see a throw over there to that $71 [billion] as nicely,” he mentioned.

Translating capitalization right into a notional value path, Quantum Ascend frames a major value goal round $1.96 per XLM—with a extra aggressive extension close to $2.28—whereas emphasizing adherence to Elliott Wave proportionality: “We’re taking a look at 400% or a 5X… everybody’s going to be screaming for $2; it’s going to finish up at like $1.96… another excuse that is sensible is that the third wave can’t be the shortest… I really feel actually good about that focus on proper there.” The analyst additionally notes {that a} fast, internally impulsive sub-structure is believable for the fifth wave (“might see 5 waves on this fifth wave right here fairly fast”), given the asset’s historical past of condensed strikes.

As of September 11, 2025, XLM adjustments palms round $0.386 with a market capitalization close to $12.28 billion, per CoinMarketCap. A transfer to the analyst’s $60 billion major goal would suggest an appreciation on the order of ~4.9x from as we speak’s valuation, with the exact greenback value contingent on circulating-supply circumstances on the time of arrival.

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Provide mechanics are a key backdrop to his market-cap emphasis. In November 2019, the Stellar Improvement Basis (SDF) diminished complete XLM provide to ~50 billion through a 55 billion token burn; since then, no new lumens are created on the protocol stage, though circulating provide has continued to evolve as SDF distributes treasury holdings over time. This helps clarify why long-horizon market-cap curves can diverge from easy value charts, significantly when evaluating epochs with completely different circulating float.

If realized, a major goal close to $1.96 would set a brand new all-time excessive for XLM, exceeding the $0.938 peak recorded on January 4, 2018. That historic marker is related as a result of, in Elliott phrases, structurally new highs typically validate the completion of a cycle’s terminal wave—although the analyst himself ties affirmation to the unfolding of the interior wave construction relatively than to a single value print.

To make sure, Elliott counting and Fibonacci confluence are interpretive frameworks, not certainties. Macro liquidity, the trail of Bitcoin dominance, and idiosyncratic issuance/distribution by massive holders can all alter trajectories and timing. Nonetheless, for believers in cycle symmetry, Quantum Ascend’s case is simple: a high-time-timeframe fifth wave for XLM, projected at roughly $60 billion in market cap, equating to a couple of 400% rally from present ranges—“simply shy of $2” on value.

Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com