Australia printed a stronger-than-expected GDP determine, because the economic system grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, additional weighing on RBA expectations. To prime it off, the earlier interval additionally noticed a optimistic revision from 0.2% to 0.3% quarterly development.

Let’s study which pairs from our watchlist capitalized on this setting of decreased RBA dovishness to find out if our bullish AUD concepts delivered worthwhile alternatives.

Watchlists are value outlook & technique discussions supported by each basic & technical evaluation, a vital step in direction of making a prime quality discretionary commerce thought earlier than engaged on a danger & commerce administration plan.

For those who’d prefer to comply with our “Watchlist” picks proper when they’re revealed all through the week, try our BabyPips Premium subscribe web page to study extra!

The Setup

• What We Had been Watching: Australia’s Gross Home Product (Q2 2025)
• The Expectation: Progress to speed up from 0.2% q/q in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2
• Knowledge final result: GDP rose 0.6% q/q or 1.8% on an annualized foundation, its quickest tempo of development since September 2023
• Market setting surrounding the occasion: Combined and ordinary broad market correlations; gold rallied to report highs on safe-haven demand amid surging world bond yields on political and monetary issues

Occasion End result

Australia printed one more upbeat financial report, because the Q2 2025 GDP studying beat market estimates whereas the earlier quarter’s determine noticed a optimistic revision. Family consumption contributed 0.4 share factors to development, rising 0.9% as discretionary spending elevated 1.4%.

To study extra in regards to the occasion, try our protection on the Australia GDP report

Basic Bias Triggered: Bullish AUD setups

Conventional market correlations appeared to crumble main as much as the Australian GDP launch, as safe-haven valuable metals like gold had been on the rise whereas authorities bonds have been promoting off, triggering report highs for long-term bond yields within the U.Okay. and Japan.

Among the many components that seemingly sparked the surge in yields have been the political fallout after Japan’s elections and U.Okay. authorities spending issues. On the similar time, market gamers remained anxious after the U.S. Federal Appeals Courtroom dominated that most of Trump’s tariffs have been unlawful, preserving commerce coverage uncertainty in play because the case is taken as much as the Supreme Courtroom for ruling by mid-October.

Including one other layer of complexity to general sentiment was positioning forward of the much-anticipated U.S. NFP launch, which may form September Fed coverage expectations, together with ongoing challenges to Fed independence.

Later within the week, crude oil began marching to the beat of its personal drum when rumors swirled that OPEC+ was contemplating one other manufacturing increase. This was adopted by stories confirming that the cartel truly pumped extra barrels of oil than anticipated, with the API and EIA stock figures additionally posting shock positive aspects in stockpiles to additional stoke oversupply fears.

The highlight shifted on Thursday to U.S. main jobs indicators because the NFP launch drew nearer, with majority of stories (JOLTS job openings, Challenger job cuts, ADP non-farm employment change, and ISM companies PMI) hinting at a softer improve in hiring, preserving the greenback torn between safe-haven flows and dovish Fed expectations.

Friday’s buying and selling was dominated by very weak employment information from each the US and Canada. US payrolls solely added simply 22,000 jobs in August (properly beneath the 75,000 forecast), and former month’s numbers have been revised decrease considerably by a web -21K between June and July.  The disappointing jobs report triggered a Greenback selloff and collapse in bond yields, supporting positive aspects in counter currencies like AUD & CHF. Canada joined the disappointing jobs social gathering, sharing that it misplaced an enormous 65K jobs, considerably elevating the percentages of a September BOC price reduce and crashing CAD within the course of.

With a blended and strange broad market setting, it was a tricky name between AUD/USD and AUD/CAD on which had the very best potential for a web optimistic final result. In the end, we thought BOTH have been good choices with broad market influences being much less of a weight on market conduct. 

AUD/USD: Internet Bullish AUD Occasion final result + Danger-On Situation = Arguably good odds of a web optimistic final result

AUD/USD 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

First, let’s contact on the AUD/USD dialogue. This setup performed out fairly properly, because the pair was hovering across the goal entry space main as much as the GDP launch and was capable of finding help on the technical ranges highlighted (Pivot level, Fibs, and shifting averages) when the occasion turned out in favor of additional AUD upside.

Previous to the occasion, value had dipped to the S1 (.6480) Pivot help space / 0.6500 main psychological help, then bouncing to the Pivot Level degree (0.6520) forward of the GDP occasion.

Stronger-than-expected Australian development figures ultimately hit the wires to seemingly herald basic patrons, seemingly a contributor to taking the pair as much as the 0.6550 minor psychological resistance within the periods that adopted, however falling in need of the swing excessive. A reversal again to the draw back hit AUD/USD on Thursday, seemingly pushed by the rebound within the Buck, taking the pair again to the pivot level degree, the place it discovered help as soon as once more.

On Friday, the widespread U.S. greenback sell-off propelled AUD/USD sharply increased, permitting it to blast via the R1 Pivot Resistance space and former resistance ranges to the touch highs not seen since early August. The mixture of a basically sturdy Aussie and a basically weak U.S. greenback made this the standout performer.

AUD/CAD 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

This AUD/CAD setup additionally deserves a spot in our eligible performs for the week, given how general market sentiment and danger correlations have been in flux forward of the occasion and afterwards.

Whereas the pair already dipped beneath the shallow pullback help space mentioned within the watchlist, our analysts have been capable of pinpoint potential crude oil weak spot that might maintain the bullish situation in play. Apart from, AUD/CAD additionally saved its head above the ascending development line that seemingly served as the road within the sand for an uptrend correction, attracting bulls at S1 (.8960) earlier than a extra sustained rally adopted.

The pair was capable of finding its method again inside the space of curiosity forward of the Australian GDP launch, which then triggered a bounce again to the swing excessive within the session’s that adopted. Bearish crude oil developments, together with the OPEC+ rumored manufacturing increase and oversupply issues have been very seemingly massive basic contributors, presumably serving to take the pair previous R2 (.9020) and allowed it to remain afloat above R1 (.9010) even after one other pullback.

The rally went into overdrive on Friday. A catastrophic Canadian employment report, which confirmed an surprising lack of 65,500 jobs, decimated the loonie. This coincided with broad risk-off sentiment following the weak U.S. jobs information. The mixture despatched AUD/CAD hovering, blowing previous all resistance ranges and making it one of many week’s strongest trending pairs. The result was a confluence of Aussie energy, oil value weak spot, and a dramatic collapse within the Canadian greenback, all leading to a roughly 72 pip acquire (110 pip acquire at peak) put up Australian GDP launch for the bulls.

Not Eligible to maneuver past Watchlist – Bearish AUD Setups

GBP/AUD: Internet Bearish AUD Occasion End result + Danger-On Situation

GBP/AUD 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

The GDP beat invalidated this bearish AUD setup. On the time of our authentic dialogue, this pair appeared prepared to interrupt above its short-term descending development line.  However main as much as the Australian GDP launch, GBP/AUD broke down even additional, earlier than the result of the occasion didn’t favor Aussie bears, reducing the percentages of a profitable upside reversal.

However GBP/AUD did truly rebound regardless of the bullish Australian GDP occasion, almost definitely because of a powerful bullish reversal in sentiment within the pound, seemingly a response to optimistic feedback from each UK Finance Minister Reeves and BOE Governor Bailey on Wednesday. From there GBP/AUD,  stabilized and traded largely sideways (with slight bearish lean), as broad market sentiment and their roles as beta currencies seemingly took again management over each Sterling and the Aussie.

AUD/CHF: Internet Bearish AUD Occasion final result + Danger-Off Situation 

AUD/CHF 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

Even with periodic safe-haven flows that ought to have favored the Swiss franc, Australia’s stronger development prospects saved AUD/CHF supported above key ranges. Stronger-than-expected Australian GDP information led to a break above the near-term resistance zone our analysts have been eyeing forward of the report. Nevertheless, the pair nonetheless struggled to maintain its transfer increased instantly after the occasion since danger sentiment appeared to favor safe-haven currencies then.

Weaker-than-expected Swiss CPI ultimately gave the breakout some legs, taking AUD/CHF in for a check of R1 (.5260) earlier than retreating again to the damaged resistance degree, as merchants seemingly squared away positions main as much as the high-impact NFP launch.

The horrible U.S. NFP report on Friday triggered an enormous flight to security, re-establishing the Swiss franc’s function as the last word safe-haven forex. This surge in demand for the franc brought on a pointy drop in AUD/CHF, erasing earlier positive aspects. The pair’s value motion turned a tug-of-war between Australia’s sturdy fundamentals and the franc’s unparalleled attraction throughout occasions of market panic.

The Verdict

Australia’s upside GDP shock supported the potential of additional AUD positive aspects, persevering with the Land Down Beneath’s streak of optimistic information that weighed on RBA price easing hopes. And given the bizarre broad market setting, we thought AUD/USD and AUD/CAD have been each nice candidates to maneuver on from the Watchlist stage to the strategy planning stage, and presumably reside publicity / buying and selling stage.

And happily for each, the online outcomes for a bullish lean have been seemingly web optimistic provided that each pairs closed the week properly above each dialogue ranges and put up occasion ranges.

Now, given the variety of prime tier occasions & information circulation, and the choppiness of value motion in each pairs, extra notably in AUD/USD, the planning and execution of a buying and selling technique would have seemingly been an element within the final result.  However as soon as once more, with the markets notably increased on the week, odds are fairly sturdy of a web optimistic final result for the bulls.

With that being the case, we rated the watchlist discussions as “extremely seemingly” of supporting a web optimistic final result.

Key Takeaways: