Bitcoin is about to bear its fourth halving on April 19. For crypto fanatics, it is well-known that this halving happens each 4 years and is a important occasion that may considerably alter Bitcoin’s market dynamics because it impacts the coin’s provide mechanism.

How Has Bitcoin Halving Affected Worth?

The next important strides adopted every worth halving:

• First halving in 2012 noticed Bitcoin’s worth rise from $12 to $900 within the years following.
• Second halving in 2016 noticed the worth climb from round $600 to $2,500 in a yr.
• Third halving in 2020 noticed costs surge from roughly $8,000 to $40,000 in lower than a yr.

CHART 1. MONTHLY CHART OF BITCOIN. Right here you see the worth motion following the second and third halving. How a lot will worth rise after the fourth halving?Chart supply: StockCharts.com. For instructional functions.

Nonetheless, correlation is not causation, and these halvings may merely be reference factors marking surges pushed by numerous different elements.

However what if Bitcoin’s post-halving provide does play a big position in its worth surge? What if a lower in provide stokes demand to the purpose of FOMO? Is it a superb time to leap in now, or how are you going to time an entry?

A Unusual Idea: Bitcoin Seasonality

Some cryptanalysts will argue that Bitcoin is seasonal. However whereas it does have seasonal knowledge, seasonality is one other matter altogether, because it implies inside provide/demand mechanisms taking place constantly inside a calendar yr.

Nonetheless, the context is one thing you may want to pay attention to in your try to time an entry.

CHART 2. BITCOIN’S 10-YEAR SEASONAL PERFORMANCE. Many of the months have exhibited energy in returns and better closes (primarily as a result of Bitcoin has always been topic to hype and FOMO).

Chart supply: StockCharts.com. For instructional functions.

Utilizing StockCharts’ Seasonality instrument, Bitcoin’s 10-year seasonal efficiency reveals that October and February are usually its strongest months, with a higher-close fee close to or at 90% and a mean return fee of 24% (October) and 14.4% (February).

However the mixture of April, Might, and June, three consecutive months, additionally presents an interesting alternative. How does Bitcoin’s 10-year seasonal efficiency examine with the S&P 500?

CHART 3. 10-YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BITCOIN AGAINST THE S&P 500. Be aware how October and February stay probably the most important months in comparison with the broader market.Chart supply: StockCharts.com. For instructional functions.

Just like the chart above, October and February are Bitcoin’s strongest months. Whereas April by way of July are comparatively sturdy, April stands out because the strongest among the many months in Spring.

The best way to Entry the Seasonality Instrument

There are alternative ways to entry the seasonality instrument in StockCharts.

• Click on the Charts & Instruments tab on the high of the StockCharts web page, enter an emblem within the Seasonality panel, and click on Go. 
• Enter the image within the ChartBar on the high of the web page and choose “Seasonality” from the dropdown menu on the left.
• From Your Dashboard, in Member Instruments, click on on Seasonality.
• Under the seasonality chart, you will discover hyperlinks to directions and fast suggestions that give extra detailed directions.

So, what does the worth motion seem like as we speak? Let’s flip to the each day chart of Bitcoin to US greenback.

CHART 4. DAILY CHART OF BITCOIN. Be aware the lower in momentum and the potential help ranges serving as doable entry factors for these trying to go lengthy.

Chart supply: StockCharts.com. For instructional functions.

Be aware Bitcoin’s five-day sell-off from March 14 to 19. Maybe in mild of the April halving occasion, Bitcoin bulls jumped in as costs approached the newest swing low of just under $60,000. This degree additionally coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from the January 2024 low of $38,512 to the March excessive of $73,802.

Nonetheless, observe that the bounce lacks momentum, because the Cash Circulate Index (MFI) and the Chaikin Cash Circulate (CMF) sign a speedy lower in shopping for strain. Nonetheless, the MFI is nowhere close to “oversold” territory, and the CMF continues to be above the zero line, which is a bullish signal that consumers nonetheless have the technical benefit.

Even when the current rally falters, Bitcoin’s uptrend will stay viable. If a decline as painful because the $56,000 vary happens, the uptrend would stay intact. The Kumo (Ichimoku Cloud) has additionally been plotted to verify this “help degree” thesis. Discover how the worth bounced off the Kumo again in January. The present worth motion offers a wider vary of support-level expectations.

The Backside Line

Whereas the fourth halving occasion on April 19 will possible fire up some FOMO, watch the present swing to see whether or not it continues or pulls again. The approaching months are seasonally sturdy, however seasonality could play second fiddle to the halving occasion. If it does pull again, you possibly can see the degrees the place Bitcoin is more likely to bounce, serving as a strategic entry level for these trying to go lengthy.

Disclaimer: This weblog is for instructional functions solely and shouldn’t be construed as monetary recommendation. The concepts and techniques ought to by no means be used with out first assessing your private and monetary state of affairs or consulting a monetary skilled.