USD/CAD seems to be prepared to interrupt a technical resistance space forward of Canada’s GDP launch!
Can CAD bulls flip issues round or will USD be too sturdy for the comdoll within the subsequent buying and selling periods?
Earlier than shifting on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out AUD/USD’s assist zone forward of Australia’s retail gross sales launch. Ensure to take a look at if it’s nonetheless a legitimate play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets within the final buying and selling periods:
Contemporary Market Headlines & Financial Knowledge:
CB China Main Financial Index learn for February: -0.1% m/m to 151.8; January upwardly revised to 0.1%
In its quarterly bulletin, SNB shared that diminished inflation and CHF energy factored within the price reduce, and that present inflation forecasts are “inside the vary of worth stability”
EIA’s crude oil inventories rose by 3.2M barrels within the week ending March 22 (-0.7M forecast, -2.0M earlier)
In a ready assertion titled “There’s Nonetheless No Rush,” voting FOMC member Christopher Waller shared his choice for lowering the variety of Fed rate of interest cuts or pushing them “additional into the long run”
BOJ’s Opinions Abstract repeated that “Japan’s financial system shouldn’t be in a state the place speedy coverage rate of interest hikes are needed.”
Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation expectations declined from 4.5% y/y to 4.3% y/y in March and marked the bottom since 2021
Australia’s retail gross sales for February: 0.3% m/m (0.4% forecast, 1.1% earlier)
Australia’s personal sector credit score rose by one other 0.5% m/m in February (0.4% m/m forecast)
New Zealand’s ANZ enterprise confidence fell 12 pts from 34.7 to 22.9 in March; Inflation expectations dipped from 4.0% to three.8%; “Value and wage pressures stay very excessive”
Germany’s retail gross sales unexpectedly fell by 1.9% m/m in February (0.3% forecast, -0.4% earlier), dashing hopes that consumption might assist offset weak industrial manufacturing circumstances
Worth Motion Information
Overlay of USD vs. Main Currencies Chart by TradingView
With not numerous market-moving knowledge releases, merchants appear to have targeted on Fed member Christopher Waller’s remarks late Thursday.
The voting FOMC member cited slowing progress in opposition to excessive inflation and powerful labor and development prospects as his causes for preferring fewer Fed rate of interest cuts this yr OR for the Fed to push again its first rate of interest reduce.
The U.S. greenback gained some floor on the speech but additionally misplaced most of its beneficial properties at the beginning of Asian session buying and selling. European session merchants really feel otherwise, although, as a result of USD shot up once more and is closely within the inexperienced in opposition to its main counterparts (besides JPY).
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Financial Calendar:
Canada’s month-to-month GDP at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. ultimate This fall 2023 GDP at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. Chicago PMI at 1:45 pm GMT
U.S. pending residence gross sales at 2:00 pm GMT
U.S. revised UoM shopper sentiment at 2:00 pm GMT
Tokyo’s core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
Japan’s preliminary industrial manufacturing at 11:50 pm GMT
Japan’s retail gross sales at 11:50 pm GMT
Use our new Foreign money Warmth Map to shortly see a visible overview of the foreign exchange market’s worth motion! ️
USD/CAD 15-min Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView
USD/CAD is retesting a key month-to-month resistance zone! As talked about above, the U.S. greenback noticed a contemporary wave of shopping for that took it greater particularly in opposition to “dangerous” bets like AUD, NZD, CAD, and GBP.
The greenback’s energy appears to have bumped USD/CAD above the 1.3600 psychological degree which additionally traces up with the R1 Pivot Level line.
Canada is releasing its month-to-month GDP knowledge later at the moment whereas Uncle Sam will print a bunch of lower-tier studies like the ultimate This fall 2023 GDP, preliminary jobless claims, pending residence gross sales, and revised UoM shopper sentiment figures.
Will we see an upside breakout at the moment? Or will sufficient USD bears step in and drag USD/CAD again right down to its 1.3570 – 1.3600 vary? Depart your ideas within the feedback part beneath!
