Based on economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% likelihood of topping $140,000 earlier than the month ends. He posted that chance on X and backed it with simulation work that makes use of a decade of worth strikes to map doubtless outcomes.
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Simulation Based mostly On Historic Information
Peterson mentioned the mannequin runs a whole lot of simulations utilizing day by day Bitcoin costs going again to 2015. Based mostly on these runs, he put the prospect Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 at 50%.
He additionally gave a 43% chance that the worth will finish the month under $136k. On the time he spoke, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $121,200. Meaning an increase of about 11% could be wanted to achieve $140,000 from the present stage.
Half of Bitcoin’s October good points might have already occurred, in response to this AI simulation.
There’s a 50% likelihood Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
However there’s a 43% likelihood Bitcoin finishes under $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
Bitcoin set a contemporary all-time excessive of $126,200 on Monday, then cooled off. The coin started October at roughly $116,500, so the month has already produced good points.
Based on information, October has been the second-best month on common since 2013, with typical good points of 20%. Studies have disclosed that November is the strongest month traditionally, averaging 46% good points since 2013.
No Human Emotion
Peterson described his forecast as pushed by information somewhat than human emotion. He mentioned every projection follows worth modifications that mirror Bitcoin’s previous volatility and rhythm.
That method goals to take away bias from short-term sentiment. Nonetheless, there are limits to what historic simulations can present.
Bitcoin has typically moved in ways in which didn’t match previous patterns. Market reactions, coverage strikes, and different forces can push costs off the script that historical past suggests.
Market Sentiment Stays Bullish
Different analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the current excessive. One analyst mentioned the market was retesting prior highs and will transfer larger.
One other wrote that stress was constructing for additional good points. These views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by merchants and funds.
Bitcoin is the brand new hurdle fee.
Should you can’t beat it, you need to purchase it.
I defined on @SquawkCNBC this morning why so many buyers usually are not producing the returns they assume they’re. pic.twitter.com/re98rjCDua
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 7, 2025
Macro Notes From A Outstanding Investor
Studies have additionally carried feedback from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin’s rally can proceed if governments and central banks hold printing cash.
JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin won’t ever cease going up.
“They’ll by no means cease printing cash.” pic.twitter.com/qeWJnTsIb3
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025
His view hyperlinks financial coverage to Bitcoin demand, and it’s extensively shared amongst supporters who see the asset as a hedge.
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Featured picture from Verdict, chart from TradingView
